IMNM Soars 27% on Groundbreaking Phase 3 Trial Success: A Biotech Breakout or Bubble?

Summary
• Immunome (IMNM) surges 27.13% to $24.88, hitting a 52-week high of $25.30
• Phase 3 RINGSIDE trial of varegacestat meets primary and all secondary endpoints, with 56% objective response rate
• Options frenzy: 1447 contracts traded for $25 call options, 177,606 shares traded
• Sector ETFs like IDNA and CANC rise 1.36% and 1.07%, outperforming Amgen (AMGN)’s 0.86% gain
Immunome’s stock has erupted on the heels of blockbuster Phase 3 trial results for varegacestat, a gamma secretase inhibitor targeting desmoid tumors. The 27% intraday surge—driven by 84% risk reduction in disease progression and a 56% response rate—has ignited a frenzy in options and ETFs. With a New Drug Application (NDA) slated for Q2 2026, the market is betting on a potential paradigm shift in oncology.

Phase 3 Trial Triumph Ignites Biotech Bull Run
Immunome’s 27% surge is a direct response to the RINGSIDE trial’s unprecedented success. The Phase 3 data showed varegacestat reduced progression-free survival risk by 84% (HR=0.16, p<0.0001) and delivered a 56% objective response rate versus 9% for placebo. These results, described as 'striking' by Memorial Sloan Kettering’s Dr. Mrinal Gounder, position varegacestat as a potential standard of care for desmoid tumors. The company’s CEO, Clay Siegall, emphasized the drug’s convenience (once-daily oral) and manageable safety profile, with 82% of adverse events being mild. The NDA filing in Q2 2026 now looms as the next catalyst, with analysts pricing in a $10B+ valuation if approved.

Biotech Sector Trails IMNM’s Volatility as Amgen Stumbles
While Immunome’s 27% surge dwarfs sector peers, Amgen (AMGN)—the biotech sector’s leader—rose just 0.86%. The iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF (IDNA) and Tema Oncology ETF (CANC) gained 1.36% and 1.07%, respectively, reflecting modest sector optimism. However, Immunome’s move underscores the sector’s bifurcation: high-conviction biotech plays like IMNM are outperforming large-cap stalwarts as investors bet on disruptive therapies. The Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) rose 0.58%, hinting at leveraged ETF participation in the rally.

Options Frenzy and ETFs Signal High-Volatility Playbook
• MACD: 0.93 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.95 (neutral), Histogram: -0.02 (divergence)
• RSI: 56.12 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: $20.59 (upper), $18.68 (middle), $16.77 (lower)
• 200D MA: $10.97 (far below current price), 30D MA: $17.87 (support)
• IDNA (iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF): +1.36%, CANC (Tema Oncology ETF): +1.07%
• IMNM20251219C25 Call: 60.87% price change, 14.14% leverage, 161.12% IV
• IMNM20251219C24 Call: 6.67% price change, 10.31% leverage, 175.92% IV
• IMNM20260116C27 Call: -23.51% price change, 10.85% leverage, 105.21% IV
• IMNM20260116C25 Call: -7.72% price change, 9.41% leverage, 91.27% IV
• IMNM20251219P24 Put: -40.43% price change, 17.68% leverage, 154.33% IV
• IMNM20260116P23 Put: -76.28% price change, 2.88% leverage, 347.24% IV
• IMNM20251219C25 Call: 60.87% price change (bullish momentum), 161.12% IV (high volatility), 0.517 delta (moderate sensitivity), 0.0854 gamma (responsive to price swings), 177,606 turnover (liquidity). A 5% upside to $26.12 would yield a 25% payoff: max(0, 26.12 - 25) = $1.12 per share. This contract is ideal for aggressive bulls.
• IMNM20251219C24 Call: 6.67% price change (modest momentum), 175.92% IV (extreme volatility), 0.600 delta (high sensitivity), 0.0758 gamma (moderate responsiveness), 5,534 turnover (liquidity). A 5% upside would yield a 33% payoff: max(0, 26.12 - 24) = $2.12 per share. This contract balances risk and reward for mid-term holders.
Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should target IMNM20251219C25 for a 25%+ return if the stock holds above $25. Conservative investors may use IMNM20251219C24 as a hedge against a pullback. Watch for a breakdown below $21.22 (intraday low) to trigger a reevaluation.

Backtest Immunome Stock Performance
The backtest of IMNM's performance following a 27% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 48.90%, the 10-Day win rate at 52.64%, and the 30-Day win rate at 57.93%. The maximum return during the backtest was 18.54% over 59 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, IMNM can deliver positive returns in the immediate aftermath of a significant intraday increase.

IMNM’s 27% Rally is Just the Beginning—Act Before the FDA Window Closes
Immunome’s 27% surge is a watershed moment for desmoid tumor treatment and a testament to the market’s hunger for oncology breakthroughs. With varegacestat’s NDA filing in Q2 2026 and the RINGSIDE trial’s 56% response rate, the stock is primed for a prolonged rally—provided the FDA doesn’t raise unexpected hurdles. The sector’s underperformance (Amgen up 0.86%) highlights Immunome’s unique catalyst-driven momentum. Investors should lock in gains above $25.30 (52-week high) or ride the wave with leveraged options like IMNM20251219C25. Watch for $21.22 (intraday low) as a critical support level—a break below could signal a broader biotech correction.