Immutable/Bitcoin Market Overview

• IMXBTC declined from 6.3e-06 to 6e-06, ending 4.76% lower on weak volume and bearish momentum.
• Volume spiked to 5521.6 at 15:30 ET, with bearish continuation patterns visible in late-day price action.
• RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed during consolidation, indicating low volatility ahead of a directional move.
• Fibonacci retracements show 61.8% support at ~5.97e-06, now tested near close.

Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) opened at 6.3e-06 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 6.3e-06, and closed at 6e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total volume was 231,980.59, while notional turnover was approximately $1,405.30 (assuming Bitcoin at $65,000), showing moderate liquidity for the pair.

The 15-minute chart displayed a descending channel with key support levels at 6.06e-06 and 6e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, followed by a consolidation phase into the early hours of 10-06. A potential bullish reversal candle at 06:15 ET failed to close above prior highs, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure. The price may test the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ~5.97e-06 in the near term, which coincides with a prior low.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sloped downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA earlier in the session, signaling a short-term bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period MAs were in a bearish alignment, with the price below both, suggesting continued pressure unless a reversal candle forms above the 50-period MA.

MACD turned negative and flattened toward the end of the session, indicating waning bearish momentum, while RSI dropped below 30, pointing to oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands contracted during the overnight hours, hinting at a potential breakout or continuation. Volume was concentrated between 07:45 ET and 08:30 ET, with a significant sell-off pushing the price from 6.03e-06 to 5.98e-06.

The pair may find near-term support at 6e-06 and resistance at 6.03e-06. A breakout above 6.06e-06 could signal renewed buying interest, but a retest of 5.97e-06 is probable. Investors should remain cautious, as low volatility may precede a sharp directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtesting strategy leverages 15-minute RSI (14) and 20-period EMA crossovers. A long entry is triggered when RSI crosses above 30 and the close rises above the EMA; a short entry occurs when RSI drops below 70 and the close falls below the EMA. Given today’s RSI falling into oversold territory and the close near the 20-period EMA, a potential long entry may be considered for tomorrow, contingent on a reversal candle and confirmation above 6.03e-06. Historical testing would be required to assess the robustness of this strategy, especially during periods of low volatility and bearish momentum.