Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) Market Overview

• Price declined from 6.76e-06 to 6.22e-06, driven by late-night selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum with no overbought signs.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands stretched, with price near the lower band.
• Volume spiked during key breakdowns, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential consolidation near 6.26e-06 and 6.32e-06.

Immutable/Bitcoin (IMXBTC) opened at 6.76e-06 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 6.22e-06 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 6.80e-06 and a low of 6.15e-06. The 24-hour volume was approximately 148,835.54 and turnover reached 99.51 BTC. A bearish bias emerged as the pair fell into a consolidation pattern after a sharp breakdown during early trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed several bearish signals including a long lower shadow on the 06:15–06:30 candle, suggesting rejection at 6.39e-06. A key support was tested at 6.26e-06, with the price bouncing twice in late morning. A potential bearish continuation pattern formed around 6.32e-06, with the 6.47e-06 level acting as a minor resistance. The 15-minute chart showed a series of lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish reversal patterns emerging.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover trend, confirming downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA triple cross formed a bearish alignment as the price moved below all three, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a consistent bearish divergence, with the signal line crossing below zero on 2025-09-22 at 06:30. The RSI fell to 29 during the breakdown at 6.15e-06, indicating oversold conditions. However, there was no immediate bounce, signaling potential for further downside. A cross back above 30 could signal a short-term rebound, but a sustained close above 6.32e-06 would be needed to reverse the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the breakdown, with Bollinger Bands widening between 6.40e-06 and 6.15e-06. The price closed near the lower band at 6.22e-06, suggesting potential for a mean reversion. A sustained move above the middle band (6.28e-06) could signal a short-term reversal but is unlikely without a reversal candlestick.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key breakdowns, notably at 6.4e-06 and 6.15e-06, confirming bearish sentiment. Notional turnover aligned with volume spikes, showing strong bearish conviction. However, during consolidation near 6.26e-06, volume receded, suggesting a lack of buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the swing high at 6.80e-06 to the low at 6.15e-06 suggest key retracement levels at 6.38e-06 (23.6%), 6.47e-06 (38.2%), and 6.56e-06 (50%). The 6.26e-06 level aligns with the 61.8% retracement of a smaller swing between 6.39e-06 and 6.22e-06, suggesting a potential support area.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves entering short positions when the price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% retracement) with confirmation from a bearish candlestick pattern and a close below the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart. A stop loss would be placed above the nearest resistance or at the 23.6% retracement level, while a target is set at the next major Fibonacci support. This approach aligns with the recent breakdown at 6.22e-06 and could be tested for its effectiveness in the current bearish environment.