Immunocore's 2026 Q2 Earnings Call: Trial Timelines and Hle Program Rationale Clash

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Date of Call: Aug 6, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $116M in Q2, up 18% YOY; $223M in first half, up 16% YOY

Guidance:

• ChemTrack sales growth expected to moderate in Q3 due to prior inventory stocking.
• Expect to pay approximately $120M in sales-related rebates in H2 2026, then return to ~$65-70M levels in 2027.
• TEBI-AM top-line data expected as early as end of 2026.
• PRAME half-life extended data to be presented later in 2026.
• First autoimmune candidate (type 1 diabetes) first patient dosed in coming weeks, with CTA submission by end of 2026.
• R&D and SG&A expenses expected to increase modestly YOY.

Business Commentary:

Commercial Performance and ChemTrack Growth:

• Immunocore reported $223 million in net sales for the first half of 2026, representing a 16% year-on-year growth.
• The growth was supported by a $6 million increase in inventory stocking by a U.S. distributor in Q2, with the U.S. contributing $75 million, reflecting strong demand across global markets.

Pipeline Advancements and Clinical Trials:

• The company is advancing three phase three trials: TEBI-AM, ATOM, and PRISML-301, with enrollment nearing completion for TEBI-AM, targeting 540 patients.
• These trials are focused on expanding ChemTrack's application in melanoma and other tumor types, driven by the need for effective treatments in second-line plus cutaneous melanoma and adjuvant uveal melanoma settings.

Financial Performance and Strategic Investments:

• Q2 net sales reached $116 million, an 18% increase over Q2 of 2025, with normalized sequential growth of 3%.
• R&D expenses increased to $74 million, primarily due to advancements in clinical programs, reflecting strategic investments to support pipeline development and potential future growth.

Five-Year Survival Data and Market Impact:

• Immunocore presented five-year overall survival data indicating ChemTrack doubles the likelihood of survival at five years in HLA-A2 positive metastatic uveal melanoma patients.
• This data reinforces ChemTrack's efficacy, supporting its position as a standard of care and informing treatment strategies, including first-line use and discussions on treatment beyond progression.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "This is the end of 2026, which could offer a much-needed." "We look forward to sharing the TEBI-AM data as early treatment option." "Our teams are working to enroll our multiple other candidates through 2026 and beyond." "I am confident in our ability to execute on this growth trajectory."

Q&A:

• Question from Tyler Van Buren (TD Cowen): For the TEPI-AM trial, can you please review the study plan for us with respect to the potential interim or interims and a final analysis? Specifically, the potential top line readout that is possible by year end.
  Response: The trial has an interim analysis written into the protocol but execution is not guaranteed. The earliest possible readout is still expected by year-end, though enrollment is still required.

• Question from Eric Schmidt (CancerPitch.org): Could you just provide a little bit more color on that and on for Eric. Good morning. For the shape of the enrollment, how that could lead to the event rates being hit, maybe for an interim or a final analysis later this year.
  Response: Once sites are activated and steady-state enrollment is achieved, the last few patients typically don't impact event rates, supporting the possibility of a headline data readout as early as end of 2026.

• Question from Jessica (J.P. Morgan): We saw US revenues grew 17% year on year to 75 million. So does that 17% growth rate fall under your definition of moderate growth that you have repeated be referred to.
  Response: While 17% is year-over-year growth, the key measure is moderating sequential quarterly growth, which is expected due to high market penetration and the impact of a one-time stocking event.

• Question from Jack Allen (Baird): I wanted to ask on Tebby AM. I did want to ask... impact on the analysis that can occur. How are you coming up with the late 26 kind of comment here?
  Response: The guidance is based on data from an independent stats group analyzing blinded event rates; as enrollment nears completion, updates will be provided as the zone of uncertainty narrows.

• Question from Sean Lawman (Morgan Stanley Investment Management): Just skipping ahead on TBAM and advanced cutaneous melanoma to the HLA-positive patient base, do you think you could realistically access, say, within the first three years of launch?
  Response: The potential addressable population is up to 4,000 patients. With high unmet need and ChemTrack's OS benefit, a good market share is expected, though uptake will depend on trial data and regulatory approval.

• Question from Ivo Forte (Wells Fargo): Are you seeing patients getting diagnosed a little bit earlier or are the numbers still what you were expecting five years ago?
  Response: Diagnosis patterns have improved over time, with more systemic monitoring now, but this is attributed to ChemTrack's availability rather than a significant shift in underlying incidence.

• Question from Greg Zivanovic (Missoula): Quick one on the brunetifus phase 1, 2, what we should be expecting to come from that data, how robust the data set studies in ovarian cancer and non-small cell lung cancer.
  Response: In ovarian cancer, the data will include longer follow-up of a monotherapy cohort and new combination data in earlier lines. In lung cancer, initial safety and activity data across molecular subsets will be shared.

• Question from Romeo O'Connor (Kemp): I just wanted to ask if you could clarify what drives this size of sales-related rebate accruals.
  Response: The $120M in H2 2026 is driven by European sales growth and a France pricing agreement requiring rebates from the prior five years; payments are expected to normalize in 2027.

• Question from Jeff Jones (Oppenheimer): Quick one regarding the ACR results and the five-year over survival. Do you expect that to have any impact on duration of therapy, which I believe sits around 14 months for contract right now?
  Response: The five-year survival data reinforces ChemTrack's long-term safety and efficacy but is not expected to change the current stable duration of therapy (~14 months).

• Question from Gabrielle (dialing in for Fessel-Kirschian): Can you speak about the extent to which you see Edea's oral regimen? Thanks so much for your question. This is Gabrielle dialing in for Fessel-Kirschian as a competitive risk to KimTrack and uveal melanoma.
  Response: Edea's regimen is good news for HLA-A2 negative patients (a significant unmet need), but ChemTrack remains the standard of care for HLA-A2 positive patients due to its strong five-year OS data, safety, and long-term tolerability.

• Question from Raja Sharma (Goldman Sachs): I was wondering if you could discuss your internal bar in ovarian cancer in the context of the statistics data that we saw at ASCO.
  Response: The trial is designed to generate an effect size on a relevant clinical endpoint (e.g., progression-free survival) in the target population to justify further investment; data will be shared as it matures.

• Question from Jack Allen (Baird): I was wondering, for your Intav platform and the HIV data, you say you have it at hand, and you're analyzing it. What data should we expect there?
  Response: The data will be shared at a conference in early 2027, similar to prior presentations, focusing on safety and efficacy trends from the multiple ascending dose study.

Contradiction Point 1

TEPI-AM Trial Readout Timeline and Confidence

Contradiction on the certainty and basis for an early 2026 readout.

What is Jack Allen's (Baird) outlook for earnings? - Jack Allen (Baird)

2026Q2: The guidance is based on information from the independent stats group reviewing blinded combined event rates... The company is confident in the timeline. - Mohamed(Executive VP of Clinical Development)

"For TEPI-AM, what is the basis for the 'as early as end of 2026' timeline and how are blinded event rates trending?" - Patrick Trucchio (H.C. Wainwright)

2025Q4: The 'as early as H2 2026' projection is based on initial assumptions, but the exact timing will depend on the actual accrual of events. A better sense will be known after enrollment completes. - Mohammed Dar(Executive VP of Clinical Development & Chief Medical Officer)

Contradiction Point 2

Half-Life Extended (HLE) PRAME Program Rationale and Benchmarking

Contradiction on the primary goal and benchmarking for the HLE trial.

Greg Zivanovic (Missoula) - Greg Zivanovic (Missoula)

2026Q2: The molecule is almost identical, with the HLE version designed for extended half-life and convenience. - Dr. Baheja Jalal(CEO)

What are the expected outcomes from the Brunetifus Phase I/II data in ovarian and non-small cell lung cancers, how will ORR numbers influence indication selection, and how will the company manage both Brunetifus and the HLE version if successful in melanoma? - Romy O'Connor (Van Lanschot Kempen)

2025Q4: The HLE trial is designed to answer two basic questions: 1) Does the extended half-life provide patient convenience? and 2) Does it potentially increase overall response rate (ORR)? The results, viewed in the context of existing brenetafusp data (which showed a strong hazard ratio of 0.51), will provide optionality... - Mohammed Dar(Executive VP of Clinical Development & Chief Medical Officer) and Bahija Jallal(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Trial Read-out Timeline and Enrollment Strategy

Conflicting statements on when data analysis occurs relative to enrollment completion.

Tyler Van Buren (TD Cowen) - Tyler Van Buren (TD Cowen)

2026Q2: The standard approach is to wait until enrollment is complete before any data analysis. - Mohamed

For the TEPI-AM trial, can you review the study plan's potential interim/final analysis, the feasibility of a year-end top-line readout, its statistical power, and the risk of a 2027 delay? - James Shin (Deutsche Bank)

2025Q2: The timing of the primary endpoint (overall survival) depends on event occurrence, with a speculative readout window... As more events occur, the cone of uncertainty will narrow. - David Berman

Contradiction Point 4

U.S. Revenue Growth and Duration of Therapy

Mixed messaging on the expected trajectory of growth and therapy duration.

Jessica (J.P. Morgan) - Jessica (J.P. Morgan)

2026Q2: The high growth rate was partly due to a $6M stocking event. Underlying growth is moderating as expected. - Ralph

Could you clarify if the 17% U.S. revenue growth rate aligns with your definition of "moderating growth" and provide the current penetration rate in U.S. community access centers and overall? - Tyler Van Buren (TD Cowen)

2025Q2: U.S. growth was driven by deeper penetration into the community setting... Growth is expected to moderate. - Ralph Torbay

Contradiction Point 5

Timeline for Sharing Updated Melanoma Trial Data

Inconsistent guidance on when updated melanoma trial data will be shared.

Eric Schmidt (CancerPitch.org) - Eric Schmidt (CancerPitch.org)

2026Q2: The 17% is year-on-year growth. The company refers to moderating growth based on quarterly sequential growth, which has normalized recently. - Travis

Could you provide more details on the enrollment shape of TEPI-AM and the expected outcomes for the half-life extended PRAME data? - Eric Schmidt (Cantor Fitzgerald)

2025Q2: Duration of therapy is currently at 13 months in the U.S. and is expected to moderate in the fourth year of launch. - Ralph Torbay

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