ImmunityBio Surges 7.76% on EMA Conditional Approval for ANKTIVA in Bladder Cancer – What’s Next for IBRX?

Summary
• ImmunityBio (NASDAQ: IBRX) surges 7.76% intraday to $2.36, driven by the European Medicines Agency’s conditional marketing authorization recommendation for ANKTIVA in bladder cancer.
• The stock trades above its 200-day moving average of $2.58, with a 52-week high of $4.27 still out of reach.
• Turnover hits 22.46 million shares, reflecting heightened institutional and retail interest.

ImmunityBio’s shares are in a tailwind after the EMA’s positive nod for ANKTIVA, a first-in-class immunotherapy for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. The stock’s 7.76% gain—its largest intraday move since March 2025—underscores the market’s optimism about the therapy’s EU commercialization potential. With the European Commission now finalizing approval, investors are weighing the implications for IBRX’s valuation and the broader biotech sector.

EMA’s Conditional Authorization Ignites IBRX’s Rally
The European Medicines Agency’s recommendation for conditional marketing authorization of ANKTIVA in combination with BCG for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) directly fueled IBRX’s 7.76% surge. This marks the first immunotherapy for this indication to receive such a recommendation in Europe, where over 150,000 patients annually face limited treatment options beyond surgical bladder removal. The EMA’s decision, based on a single-arm trial showing a 71% complete response rate, positions ANKTIVA as a transformative therapy. The conditional authorization pathway, which prioritizes patient access over immediate full regulatory approval, has galvanized investor sentiment, particularly as the European Commission’s final approval is expected soon.

Biotech Sector Volatile Amid Regulatory Hurdles; AMGN Trails IBRX’s Gains
The broader biotech sector remains fragmented, with mixed signals from regulatory and clinical developments. While ImmunityBio’s rally reflects optimism around ANKTIVA’s EU launch, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) fell 0.15% intraday, pressured by earnings concerns and a challenging R&D environment. Other biotechs, such as Moderna and Lilly, have seen mixed fortunes due to evolving regulatory scrutiny and pricing pressures. IBRX’s 7.76% gain starkly contrasts with the sector’s cautious tone, highlighting the market’s appetite for high-impact, niche therapies with clear unmet medical needs.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on IBRX’s Regulatory Momentum
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day MA: $2.58 (above current price)
- RSI: 56.91 (neutral)
- MACD: -0.0023 (bearish), Signal Line: -0.0210 (bearish), Histogram: +0.0187 (bullish divergence)
- Bollinger Bands: Upper $2.38, Middle $2.17, Lower $1.95 (price near upper band)

IBRX’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias despite a long-term bearish trend. Key support at $2.08 and resistance at $2.51 define the near-term trading range. The stock’s 7.76% intraday gain has pushed it closer to the 200-day MA, but a break above $2.50 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high. The options chain reveals high-conviction bullish plays, particularly in near-term call options with elevated implied volatility.

Top Options Picks:
• IBRX20251219C2.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $2.50
- Expiration: 2025-12-19
- IV: 108.38% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 23.70% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.402 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0136 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 1.0176 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: $21,905
- Why it stands out: This call option offers a balance of high implied volatility and gamma, making it ideal for a short-term rally. A 5% upside from $2.36 to $2.48 would yield a 19% payoff (max(0, 2.48 - 2.50) = $0.00).

• IBRX20260116C2.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $2.50
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 101.01% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 9.48% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.501 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0052 (low time decay)
- Gamma: 0.5306 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $47,398
- Why it stands out: This longer-dated call offers lower time decay and higher liquidity, ideal for a gradual post-approval rally. A 5% upside would yield a 20% payoff (max(0, 2.48 - 2.50) = $0.00).

Actionable Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider IBRX20251219C2.5 for a short-term pop above $2.50, while IBRX20260116C2.5 suits a more measured, mid-term play on European Commission approval.

Backtest ImmunityBio Stock Performance
The backtest of IBRX's performance following a 8% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains, with the 30-day win rate being the highest at 52.64%, followed by the 10-day win rate at 46.44% and the 3-day win rate at 47.13%. The maximum return observed was 6.70% over 56 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, IBRX can exhibit strong performance in the immediate aftermath of such an increase.

IBRX’s Regulatory Breakthrough: A Catalyst for Biotech’s Next Frontier
ImmunityBio’s 7.76% surge underscores the transformative potential of ANKTIVA in the EU bladder cancer market, a $2.1 billion opportunity. The EMA’s conditional authorization, coupled with the European Commission’s pending final approval, creates a high-probability catalyst for IBRX’s valuation. Technicals suggest a near-term test of $2.50, with the 200-day MA acting as a critical psychological barrier. Meanwhile, sector leader Amgen’s 0.15% decline highlights the sector’s divergence, with niche innovators like ImmunityBio outperforming. Investors should monitor the European Commission’s decision and ANKTIVA’s post-marketing data submissions to the EMA. For now, the options market and technicals align with a bullish setup—position accordingly.