IMF Reviews Ukraine Loan Amidst Tax Hike Delay

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has initiated the review of Ukraine's latest loan as the country grapples with the delayed implementation of a tax hike. This delay, which could impact Ukraine's fiscal deficit targets and external financing needs, has raised concerns about the country's economic trajectory amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia.

The IMF, in its fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement, emphasized the need for determined domestic revenue mobilization efforts to meet elevated spending needs and restore fiscal sustainability. The tax hike, initially planned to generate Hr 27.3 billion ($670 million) in 2024 and Hr 107.7 billion ($2.63 billion) in 2025, was delayed due to political dynamics, potentially exacerbating Ukraine's budget deficit, projected at $35 billion for 2025.



The delay in implementing the tax hike also has significant implications for Ukraine's external financing needs and debt sustainability. With the war against Russia ongoing, Ukraine's financing needs remain large, driven by expenditure pressures and additional financing needs. The tax hike, a key component of the IMF-supported program, was expected to generate substantial revenue, supporting fiscal sustainability and debt relief. The delay may increase Ukraine's reliance on external financing and potentially strain debt sustainability.



The IMF's assessment of Ukraine's economic program and its potential impact on the ongoing loan review could be affected by the delay in tax hike implementation. The IMF's fifth review of Ukraine's EFF arrangement, approved on March 31, 2023, requires determined domestic revenue mobilization efforts to meet elevated spending needs and restore fiscal sustainability. A delay in the tax hike could lead to financing gaps, potentially undermining the IMF's confidence in Ukraine's commitment to the program and resulting in a less favorable assessment of Ukraine's economic performance.

The delayed tax hike also has political and social implications that could influence Ukraine's economic policies and reforms. The tax increase, initially proposed to raise $3.5 billion, was later scaled down to $1.4 billion, reflecting lawmakers' concerns about the burden on citizens. This delay suggests a political sensitivity to public opinion, as the tax hike could exacerbate economic hardships amidst the ongoing war. Socially, it may lead to increased tax evasion and a larger shadow economy, as those with undeclared wages may not feel the impact. To mitigate these effects, Ukraine should focus on combating tax evasion and improving tax administration, while also ensuring that tax changes are enacted with sufficient notice to maintain stability and predictability.

In conclusion, the IMF's review of Ukraine's latest loan comes amidst a critical juncture for the country's fiscal and economic stability. The delayed tax hike could impact Ukraine's ability to meet its fiscal deficit targets, secure additional external financing, and maintain the IMF's confidence in its economic program. As Ukraine continues to navigate the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict, addressing these fiscal and political concerns will be crucial for its long-term economic recovery and stability.