Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Illuvium/Tether closed near the 24-hour high on moderate volume and positive momentum.
• Strong bullish candlestick formations emerged around the 9.76–9.82 level.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, while volume turnover increased in the final 6 hours.
• Price appears to have retested key support at 9.4–9.45, showing resilience.
• Bollinger Bands tightened early, followed by a sharp expansion indicating heightened volatility.

ILVUSDT opened at $9.44 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $13.93, a low of $9.35, and closed at $10.80 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 1,384,552.97 and the total turnover was $13,973,493.80. Price action suggests a strong short-term rebound from a prior bearish phase.

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a series of bullish reversals and strong volume confirmation. A key support level appears to have formed near $9.40, with a strong rejection seen in the 06:00–07:00 ET timeframe. Resistance is now forming at $12.90–$13.14, as seen in the final hours before market close. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern between $9.4–$9.56 and a morning star formation near the 9.76–9.80 range.

MACD turned positive during the morning session, indicating a shift in momentum favoring the bulls. The RSI spiked into overbought territory (above 70) in the final 90 minutes, suggesting a potential pullback could follow. Bollinger Bands, which had contracted in the early hours, expanded sharply after 03:00 ET, signaling heightened volatility. A retest of the 9.4–9.45 level appears to be the next key test for bearish sentiment.

Volume picked up significantly during the last 6 hours, particularly in the 15:00–17:00 ET timeframe, which coincided with the move from $9.40 to $10.80. Notional turnover also surged during this window, supporting the price action. Divergences in volume and price were minimal, suggesting strong alignment between market participants. Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8% appear to have acted as dynamic support and resistance, particularly around $9.76 and $12.37.

The formation of bullish patterns and the strong rebound in the final hours of the 24-hour window indicate a short-term reversal could be in play. However, overbought RSI and the sharp move toward the 13.93 high raise the likelihood of a near-term correction. Investors may look for a pullback to the 9.76–10.80 range as a potential entry point, with the next 24 hours likely to provide clarity on whether the upward trend can hold. A failure to retest key support below $9.40 could signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy based on the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern could be a viable way to capitalize on short-term momentum shifts in ILVUSDT. Using a 15-minute timeframe, the strategy would involve entering a long position at the close of the engulfing candle and holding for one trading day. The most recent bullish engulfing pattern occurred at $9.40–$9.56, which could serve as a test case for the strategy. Historical performance metrics such as average return, win rate, and maximum drawdown would provide insight into its reliability. Given the recent strength in ILVUSDT, testing this hypothesis over the past 3 years may reveal whether the pattern reliably signals profitable entries. A successful backtest could justify the use of similar patterns for future trades, particularly in a market that appears to be transitioning from bearish to bullish sentiment.