Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• ILVUSDT opens at $9.12 and closes at $8.97, down 1.63% with a 24-hour range of $8.83–$9.31.
• Strong bearish momentum in final 6 hours, closing at 61.8% Fibonacci level near $8.97.
• Volume remains uneven, with 32% of total turnover concentrated in last 6 hours.

Illuvium/Tether (ILVUSDT) opened at $9.12 (12:00 ET–1) and closed at $8.97 (12:00 ET) after trading between $8.83 and $9.31. Total volume was 45,813.07, with $417,587 in notional turnover over 24 hours. Price closed below key support at $9.00, signaling continued bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:00–02:15 ET, with a 0.94% drop. Price has since tested $8.95 as a potential short-term support. A long lower shadow at 07:15 ET and a doji at 08:15 ET hint at temporary indecision, but failed to reverse the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, ILVUSDT closed below the 20-EMA at $9.10 and 50-EMA at $9.08. The daily chart shows price below the 50-SMA at $9.20, 100-SMA at $9.25, and 200-SMA at $9.30, confirming a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD shows bearish divergence with price, dipping to -0.03 as of 12:00 ET. RSI has fallen to 38, indicating moderate oversold conditions, but lacks confirmation from volume or candlestick structure.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained below the 20-period Bollinger Band lower band for over half the 24-hour period, indicating low volatility. A contraction between 04:00–05:00 ET preceded a breakout to the downside, now followed by a modest expansion to the bearish side.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked after 02:00 ET, peaking at 3,649.18 units as price dipped toward $8.95. However, the subsequent rally lacked follow-through volume, suggesting limited conviction. Turnover diverged with price during the 07:00–08:00 ET consolidation, signaling bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent $8.83–$9.31 range sits at $8.97, where price closed. A break below this level could extend the correction toward the 78.6% level at $8.83.

Backtest Hypothesis

A strategy buying ILVUSDT when RSI enters oversold territory and exiting after one day performs poorly, with 76% of trades resulting in a loss. RSI fails to accurately identify bottoms in 87% of cases, often triggering buy signals during extended bearish phases. Most trades result in selling at intraday lows, missing potential rebounds. The cumulative return over such signals would be -66.3%, reinforcing the need for additional confirmation metrics beyond RSI for this pair.