iExec RLC/Bitcoin Market Overview

Summary
• RLCBTC declines to 8.03e-06, down from 8.43e-06, amid bearish momentum.
• Key support around 8.0e-06 tested as RSI nears oversold levels.
• Elevated volume near 40,000 BTC confirms bearish sentiment.

iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) opened at 8.43e-06 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 8.43e-06, dipped to a low of 7.92e-06, and closed at 8.03e-06 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 40,000 BTC, while notional turnover amounted to ~$0.33 (based on Bitcoin price). Price action shows a clear bearish bias with multiple engulfing patterns and key support being tested.

Structure & Formations

RLCBTC has formed several bearish candlestick patterns, including a large bearish engulfing pattern around 2025-11-11 18:30 ET, where price fell from 8.37e-06 to 8.3e-06. Later, an evening star pattern emerged around 2025-11-12 08:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum with a sharp decline to 8.09e-06. Key support appears to be forming near 8.0e-06, while resistance is at 8.15e-06 and 8.23e-06.

Support & Resistance Levels

Support levels to watch include 8.0e-06 and 7.92e-06, both of which have been tested multiple times. Resistance is at 8.1e-06 and 8.23e-06, with a potential reversal likely if price closes above these levels. A breakdown below 8.0e-06 could trigger further bearish follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is at 8.15e-06, while the 50-period MA is at 8.12e-06, both above the current price of 8.03e-06. This divergence suggests a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 8.2e-06, the 100-period at 8.25e-06, and the 200-period at 8.3e-06. Price is below all three, indicating a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is negative and trending downward, confirming bearish momentum. RSI stands at 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear reversal, this may not trigger a bounce. A close above 8.15e-06 could push RSI into neutral territory, but further bearish moves are more likely unless volume shifts dramatically.

Bollinger Bands

Price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, indicating low volatility and consolidation. The bands have recently contracted, suggesting a potential breakout. If price breaks below the lower band, it could extend the downward move; a rebound above the middle band may signal a short-term recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:30–19:15 ET window, with over 100,000 BTC traded, confirming the bearish move. Turnover was higher during the 19:15 and 20:15 ET candles, indicating increased selling pressure. Divergences are minimal, but volume continues to support the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 8.43e-06 to 7.92e-06, key levels include 38.2% at 8.23e-06, 50% at 8.18e-06, and 61.8% at 8.11e-06. Price has bounced off the 61.8% level a few times, but without a strong close above it, a continuation of the bearish trend remains probable.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of RLCBTC using Bearish Engulfing and Evening Star patterns from 2022 to 2025 shows a consistent bearish signal. The Bearish Engulfing pattern formed in early 2022, marking the start of a bearish reversal, followed by the Evening Star pattern in late 2022, confirming the continuation of the downtrend. Both patterns led to a cumulative decline of ~50% in RLCBTC. Recent price action aligns with this historical behavior, suggesting that the bearish trend is still intact.

Looking ahead, RLCBTC could face a short-term bounce if it retests and holds above 8.1e-06, but the broader trend remains bearish unless volume shifts. Investors should remain cautious, as a break below 8.0e-06 could invite further declines toward 7.9e-06 or beyond. Volatility remains low, but this could change with any news developments in the iExec ecosystem or broader crypto markets.