iExec RLC/Bitcoin Market Overview – 2025-10-13

• RLCBTC surged to 9.09e-06 following a sharp 15-minute spike in volume and turnover
• Key support at 7.82e-06 and resistance at 8.18e-06 show strong reversal attempts
• MACD divergence suggests potential momentum waning after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
• Volatility expanded significantly with Bollinger Bands widening past 2σ
• Final hour saw heavy distribution at 8.91e-06 after a 52% drop in on-balance volume

At 12:00 ET–1, iExec RLC/Bitcoin (RLCBTC) opened at 7.55e-06, peaked at 9.97e-06, and closed at 8.91e-06. The 24-hour volume reached 235,622.1 BTC equivalents, with total turnover amounting to $1.21M. The pair displayed a strong consolidation after a massive 15-minute volume spike at 15:15 ET.

Structure & Formations

RLCBTC formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 7.66e-06, followed by a bullish flag between 7.62e-06 and 7.73e-06. A key resistance at 8.18e-06 was tested twice, failing to hold on the first attempt but showing strong buy pressure on the second. The price found support at 7.82e-06, with a 52% on-balance volume drop suggesting potential exhaustion.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA at 7.79e-06, signaling a short-term bullish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA from above, indicating a long-term bullish trend with potential for a golden cross.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish at 15:15 ET with a large negative histogram, despite the price continuing upward. RSI reached 88 at 15:30 ET, suggesting overbought conditions, followed by a sharp 24-point drop to 64. The divergence between RSI and price suggests waning momentum and potential for a near-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically during the final 45 minutes, with Bollinger Bands widening to nearly 2σ. Price closed at 8.91e-06, just below the upper band, indicating a high-risk, high-reward scenario for the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 49,348.7 BTC equivalents at 15:30 ET, with turnover reaching $2.47M in that 15-minute window. A divergence between volume and price appeared as the pair closed higher without a proportional increase in turnover in the final hour.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level at 8.18e-06 was a key support/resistance point, successfully tested and then broken in the final hour. A 38.2% retracement at 8.67e-06 was rejected, suggesting stronger bearish pressure than initially anticipated.

Backtest Hypothesis

To rigorously test the potential of RLCBTC’s recent price behavior, a backtest could be designed using the 20-period high as a resistance break indicator. For example, a trade could be triggered when RLCBTC closes above the previous 20-day high. This would align with the 8.18e-06 level seen during the 15:15–15:30 ET window. If applied from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13, such a strategy could help assess the profitability of short-term breakouts in a high-volatility asset like RLCBTC.

Looking ahead, RLCBTC may face a test of 9.09e-06 as a potential new resistance level, or a pullback to 8.18e-06 as a key support. Traders should remain cautious of volatility and divergence in momentum indicators, with a risk caveat of potential short-term correction if RSI remains below 70 and MACD fails to turn bullish.