iExec RLC/Bitcoin Market Overview for 2025-10-07

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of 8.71e-06 amid increased downward momentum.
• Volatility expanded, with the asset breaking below multiple Bollinger Band midlines.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, confirming bearish continuation.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, but price failed to find support near key levels.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged after 15:00 ET, indicating potential trend exhaustion.

The iExec RLC/Bitcoin pair (RLCBTC) opened at 8.99e-06 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 9.30e-06, and closed at 8.71e-06 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 27,911.2, with a notional turnover of approximately 249.2 BTC.

Price action reveals a bearish continuation across the 15-minute timeframe, with a sharp decline starting around 15:00 ET. Key support levels appear at 8.92e-06 and 8.71e-06, with the latter being a 24-hour swing low. Resistance is clustered around 9.0e-06 and 9.15e-06, where earlier rejections occurred. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed between 15:00 and 15:15 ET, suggesting short-term bearish momentum could remain intact.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a clear downward slope, aligning with the bearish bias. The RSI dropped below 30 after 17:00 ET but failed to trigger a rebound, indicating potential oversold conditions without immediate support. MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, reinforcing the downward pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, with price closing near the lower band, indicating a period of heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 9.02e-06 high to the 8.71e-06 low is at 8.82e-06, currently acting as a potential short-term floor. Volume spiked in the final 6 hours, especially between 15:00 and 18:00 ET, confirming the bearish move. However, the price-volume divergence in the morning hours—where volume was low but price drifted lower—suggests caution for further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 8.82e-06 as a dynamic support threshold. Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the failure to rebound from oversold RSI conditions, a short entry might be triggered below this level. Stop-loss placement above the 8.92e-06 swing high could help manage risk, with a target at the next Fibonacci level (38.2%) near 8.77e-06. This setup would align with a mean-reversion strategy during volatile bear phases and could be validated using historical data on RLCBTC’s behavior during similar retracements.