IEA forecasts global oil supply at 104.5 million barrels per day in 2025, up from 103 million in 2024.
Thursday, Mar 13, 2025 5:03 am ET
1min read IEA forecasts global oil supply at 104.5 million barrels per day in 2025, up from 103 million in 2024.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published its Oil Market Report (OMR) for January 2025, forecasting a significant increase in global oil supply by 2025 [1]. According to the report, global oil supply is projected to reach 104.7 million barrels per day (bpd), up from the current level of 103.5 million bpd. This growth is primarily driven by a rise in non-OPEC+ production, which is expected to increase by 1.5 million bpd in both 2024 and 2025.The IEA attributes the increase in global oil supply to a number of factors, including the economic outlook, which is expected to improve marginally in 2025, and increased production from OPEC+ African producers. The report also highlights the impact of lower fuel prices, colder weather, and abundant petrochemical feedstocks on global oil demand, which rose seasonally in the fourth quarter of 2024 and posted robust annual growth of 940 thousand bpd.
Russian oil exports, which eased by 40 thousand bpd in December, are also expected to have an impact on global oil supply. However, the US government's new sanctions intended to reduce revenues from the Russian oil sector may impact these exports and global supply [1].
Refinery crude runs, which jumped to a five-year high of 84.3 million bpd in December, are also expected to contribute to the increase in global oil supply. The report forecasts refinery runs to rise by an additional 660 thousand bpd in 2025, following growth of 510 thousand bpd in 2024.
Despite the increase in global oil supply, the report notes that observed oil inventories, which include crude oil stocks on land and on water as well as oil products, have been increasing. According to preliminary data, global inventories extended the gains in December, led mainly by a surge in oil products on water.
References:
[1] IEA. (2025, January 10). IEA Oil Market Report January 2025. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2025
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