IDEX/Tether (IDEXUSDT) Market Overview – October 7, 2025

• IDEXUSDT experienced a sharp 24-hour drop of ~11.5% after testing key resistance and forming bearish reversal patterns.
• Strong bearish momentum was confirmed by RSI divergence and a breakdown below the 20-period moving average.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon, with a 15-minute candle gapping down and closing at the low.
• Turnover surged after 15:00 ET as sellers dominated, but volume declined later with no signs of buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands widened, and price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions and a possible bounce.

IDEX/Tether (IDEXUSDT) opened at $0.02524 on October 6, 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.02559 before closing at $0.02534 on October 7, 12:00 ET. The pair hit a 24-hour low of $0.02416. Total volume amounted to 4.99 million units, while notional turnover totaled $126,095. A sharp decline unfolded after 15:00 ET, with a large bearish candle confirming breakdown sentiment.

Structure & Formations

IDEXUSDT tested a key resistance zone between $0.0254 and $0.0255 around midday, forming a bearish engulfing pattern at 17:45 ET. This signaled a shift in momentum, which was later confirmed by a doji at 19:00 ET, reflecting indecision. The price broke below the $0.0252 support level at 21:15 ET, followed by a breakdown candle at 15:15 ET with a 1.8% move on heavy volume. A final leg down to $0.02416 at 15:15 ET marked a 11.5% drawdown, indicating a strong short-term bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) turned downward after 19:00 ET, crossing below the 50-period MA to confirm a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA (SMA) on the daily chart also moved beneath the 100-period MA, reinforcing a weakening trend. Bollinger Bands widened dramatically after 15:00 ET, with the price closing near the lower band at $0.02416. This suggests a potential overextension in the short term and could foreshadow a bounce from oversold conditions.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line turned negative and crossed the signal line downward after 19:00 ET, with bearish divergence evident in the histogram. RSI dropped below 30 by 15:00 ET and remained in oversold territory, indicating exhaustion in the downtrend. However, a divergence between the RSI and price during the final leg down hinted at potential bearish continuation in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged after 15:00 ET, with a single 15-minute candle recording $3,215 in turnover and 2.01 million units traded. This was followed by a sharp drop in volume after 16:00 ET, which suggested a lack of follow-through buying pressure. The volume profile showed a clear bearish confirmation pattern, where strong selling was met with minimal buying at lower levels, reinforcing the possibility of further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour swing from $0.02559 to $0.02416, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.02475, and the 61.8% level is at $0.02432. The price stalled at $0.02428 before closing near $0.02416, suggesting that the 61.8% level is a strong area of support. A test of $0.02424 over the next 24 hours could confirm whether this level holds and potentially lead to a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and strong RSI oversold readings, a potential backtest strategy could focus on shorting IDEXUSDT from key resistance levels with a stop above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A 15-minute MACD crossover below the signal line could serve as a trigger. Stops could be placed above $0.0252, and targets set at $0.0241–$0.0238 based on the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. This approach would aim to capture continuation in a bearish trend with defined risk. The recent breakdown and volume confirmation align well with the conditions required for such a strategy to be effective.