The Ideological Foundations of MAGA and the Risks of Anti-Liberal Governance

The United States stands at a crossroads, where the ideological underpinnings of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement are reshaping governance, policy, and market dynamics. Rooted in Schmittian emergency governance, Gramscian cultural shifts, and Francis-inspired populism, this political project prioritizes executive authority, cultural resistance, and economic nationalism. For investors, these developments signal a paradigm shift in political risk and market stability, demanding a reevaluation of long-term strategies.

Schmittian Emergency Governance and the Erosion of Constitutional Norms

Carl Schmitt’s concept of the “state of exception”—where the sovereign leader can suspend legal norms during emergencies—has found a modern echo in MAGA’s political strategies. Figures like Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have weaponized the idea of perpetual crisis, using it to justify executive overreach, from challenging election results to bypassing legislative processes [2]. This framework risks normalizing a governance model where emergencies are manufactured or exaggerated to consolidate power.

A recent example is the Trump administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods, later expanded to a universal 10% import tariff. While the administration framed these measures as necessary for national security, a federal court ruled in 2025 that IEEPA does not authorize tariff imposition, a legislative function [6]. This legal challenge highlights the fragility of emergency powers when stretched beyond their intended scope, creating regulatory uncertainty for businesses reliant on global supply chains.

Gramscian Cultural Shifts and the Battle for Hegemony

Antonio Gramsci’s theory of cultural hegemony—where dominant groups shape societal norms to maintain power—provides a lens to analyze MAGA’s ideological war against “Cultural Marxism.” MAGA rhetoric frames progressive policies like critical race theory, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) initiatives, and LGBTQ+ rights as existential threats to traditional American values [2]. This narrative, amplified by outlets like the Heritage Foundation, positions MAGA as a counter-hegemonic force, seeking to restore a vision of America centered on white Christian identity and conservative social norms [3].

The implications for social cohesion are profound. A 2025 Pew Research study found that 68% of Americans believe the country is “divided into two groups with completely different values” [1]. Such polarization not only destabilizes democratic institutions but also deters long-term investment in sectors tied to progressive social policies, such as renewable energy and education. Investors must account for the risk of regulatory rollbacks and shifting public sentiment, which could disrupt markets in healthcare, technology, and education.

Francis-Inspired Populism and the Economics of Division

Francis Fukuyama’s warnings about democratic erosion resonate in the MAGA era, where populism thrives on anti-elitism and economic nationalism. The movement’s emphasis on “America First” policies—such as Trump’s 2025 executive order to remove content promoting “gender ideology”—reflects a broader strategy to redefine national identity through protectionist trade and restrictive immigration [2]. These policies, while appealing to a base of working-class and religious voters, exacerbate global trade tensions and fragment supply chains.

The economic costs are evident. The Tax Foundation projects that average U.S. tariffs will rise from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5% by 2025, the highest since 1937 [1]. Such measures, intended to reduce the trade deficit, may instead deepen economic imbalances by raising input costs for businesses and consumers. Meanwhile, immigration restrictions—such as Trump’s push to deport undocumented immigrants—risk labor shortages in key industries like agriculture and construction, further straining economic growth [4].

Strategic Implications for Investors

The convergence of these ideological forces creates a volatile environment for investors. Political risk has shifted from traditional metrics like fiscal deficits to more abstract threats: the erosion of rule of law, the fragmentation of global markets, and the rise of identity-driven governance. Defensive positioning—such as overweighting sectors resilient to regulatory shifts (e.g., defense, infrastructure) and underweighting those tied to progressive policies (e.g., clean energy, social services)—becomes critical.

Diversification across geographies is equally vital. As the U.S. retreats from multilateral institutions, emerging markets and regional blocs may offer alternative growth corridors. However, investors must remain wary of contagion risks, as MAGA-style populism spreads globally, from Hungary’s Viktor Orbán to Argentina’s Javier Milei [5].

Conclusion

The MAGA movement’s ideological foundations—rooted in Schmittian emergency governance, Gramscian cultural conflict, and Francis-inspired populism—pose a unique challenge to market stability. For investors, the path forward lies in adaptability: hedging against political uncertainty, prioritizing liquidity, and embracing a long-term perspective that accounts for the fragility of liberal democratic norms. In an era where governance is increasingly shaped by anti-liberal thought, prudence is not just a virtue—it is a necessity.

Source:
[1] The Trade Deficit Delusion: Why Tariffs Will Not Make America Great Again [https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2025/number/4/article/the-trade-deficit-delusion-why-tariffs-will-not-make-america-great-again.html]
[2] The MAGA Ideology and the Trump Regime [https://monthlyreview.org/2025/05/01/the-maga-ideology-and-the-trump-regime/]
[3] Gramsci and Cultural Hegemony Research Papers [https://www.academia.edu/Documents/in/Gramsci_and_Cultural_Hegemony]
[4] New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of Trump almost unchanged, support among base remains strong [https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2025/marquette-law-poll-national-survey-finds-approval-of-trump-almost-unchanged-support-among-base-remains-strong.php]
[5] The New Global Struggle Over Gender, Rights, and Family Values [https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/06/the-new-global-struggle-over-gender-rights-and-family-values?lang=en]
[6] A Court Challenges Trump's Tariff Power, Raising Trade's Uncertainty [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604942693]