ICON/Tether Market Overview (ICXUSDT) - 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price closed near session low at $0.0831 after a volatile 24-hour range of $0.0811–$0.0846.
• Volatility expanded during the 24 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Momentum indicators suggested overbought conditions briefly before a sharp reversal.
• Volume spiked during the late afternoon and early evening ET, suggesting increased activity.
• No strong bullish reversal patterns were seen; bearish pressure appears to persist.

ICON/Tether (ICXUSDT) opened at $0.0831 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0831 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.0846 and a low of $0.0811. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,192,547.8 ICX, and notional turnover was $98,216.33 USD.

Structure & Formations

The price of ICON/Tether showed a range-bound structure throughout the day with multiple attempts to break above the $0.0838–$0.0841 resistance zone. A key support level emerged at $0.0831–$0.0833, where the price found consolidation during the late morning and evening. Notable bearish patterns included a long-legged doji at $0.0838 and a bearish engulfing pattern forming late afternoon, reinforcing the potential for further downside.

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a death cross, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs remained in a flat alignment, with the price trading below all three, signaling weak near-term trend strength.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI reached overbought territory above 65 during the early morning hours but quickly corrected to oversold levels after 18:00 ET. This rapid shift in momentum suggests a lack of conviction in either direction and could indicate an impending reversal or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands showed a notable expansion in the early evening, indicating increased volatility. Price remained near the lower band for the majority of the day, indicating bearish pressure. A potential break above the upper band would suggest a reversal of the bearish sentiment but seems unlikely without a strong volume confirmation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the afternoon and early evening, reaching a peak at 20:00 ET, coinciding with the price reaching a high of $0.0846. The high volume was not matched by a corresponding sharp increase in turnover, indicating possible order splitting or lower liquidity during the move. A divergence between volume and price action at the session high suggests weakening bullish conviction.

Notional turnover peaked around 15:00 ET, with a notable divergence from the falling price at that time. This may indicate increased selling pressure despite limited price movement, suggesting a potential shift in short-term sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent swing high at $0.0846 and the low at $0.0811 showed the price consolidating around the 38.2% retracement level ($0.0829) for most of the session. A break below the 23.6% level at $0.0824 could target the 38.2% level next, while a reversal above the 61.8% level at $0.0838 may require a sharp volume spike to confirm.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest based on the is_bullish_engulfing signal shows a historically poor performance for ICON/Tether since 2022, with a negative total return and a near-zero annualized return. The strategy appears to lack conviction in the current range-bound market structure and would likely fail without additional risk controls or stop-loss parameters. The lack of a strong bullish trend over the past three years suggests that relying on isolated candlestick patterns, such as the bullish engulfing, may not be effective in this asset class without complementary momentum or trend-following metrics. The low Sharpe ratio further confirms the absence of a risk-adjusted edge.