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ICL Group's (NYSE:ICL) shares have seen recent movement, with a 10% year-to-date gain. Despite a bumpy ride, the bigger-picture story is upbeat, with a 27.4% total return over the last year. Analysts see a modest upside, but ongoing geopolitical pressures and uncertainty in phosphate markets pose a risk to future growth. The fair value has surged to $6.74, well above the recent close of $5.49, catching many by surprise as analysts dial back long-term growth rates.

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