ICE Robusta coffee prices surge nearly 3%, reaching USD 3,407 per ton.

ICE Robusta coffee prices surge nearly 3%, reaching USD 3,407 per ton.

Robusta coffee futures traded on the ICE exchange experienced a significant surge on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, with prices rising by nearly 3% to reach USD 3,407 per ton. This upward trend is driven by a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions and market dynamics.

The U.S., in its latest tariffs salvo, announced plans to impose a 19% tariff on all goods from Indonesia, traditionally the world's second-largest robusta coffee exporter [1]. This move has led to increased demand for Indonesian coffee, boosting prices. Additionally, traders are scrambling to unload as much coffee as possible from Brazil before the threatened 50% Trump tariff on the world's largest coffee grower is implemented on August 1 [1]. This tariff is expected to disrupt the supply of Arabica coffee from Brazil, further driving up the price of robusta coffee.

On the demand side, the market is also influenced by the ongoing global fluctuations in coffee prices. According to the Vietnam News Agency, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam dropped by another VND 1,200, trading around VND 90,300 – 90,700/kg on July 11, 2025 [2]. Meanwhile, globally, coffee prices on the London and New York exchanges showed mixed movements, with Robusta prices continuing to plummet due to abundant supply [2].

The U.S. plans to impose new tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil, which could lead to short-term supply shortages in the world’s largest consuming market. However, experts warn that high tariffs may reduce demand for consumption in the long term [2]. The USDA's biannual report projects that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags [3]. This forecast indicates that the supply of robusta coffee is likely to remain ample, which could mitigate the impact of any tariffs on prices.

In conclusion, the surge in ICE Robusta coffee prices is a result of geopolitical tensions, market dynamics, and global demand fluctuations. As the U.S. tariffs on Indonesian and Brazilian coffee imports come into effect, the market will continue to closely monitor these developments and their impact on coffee prices.

References:
[1] Reuters. (2025). Coffee extends rally as US tariff threats simmer. Retrieved from https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L1N3TD0X6:0-coffee-extends-rally-as-us-tariff-threats-simmer-cocoa-at-multi-month-lows/
[2] Vietnam News Agency. (2025). Coffee prices on July 11, 2025: Robusta continues to drop sharply. Retrieved from https://van.nongnghiepmoitruong.vn/coffee-prices-on-july-11-2025-robusta-continues-to-drop-sharply-d762357.html
[3] Barchart. (2025). Arabica coffee resumes climb on dry Brazil weather. Retrieved from https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33446106/arabica-coffee-resumes-climb-on-dry-brazil-weather