ICE U.K. nat gas Sept. futures settle at 79.53 pence/therm

ICE U.K. nat gas Sept. futures settle at 79.53 pence/therm

London, UK - July 2, 2025

The ICE U.K. natural gas September futures settled at 79.53 pence per therm on Friday, following a volatile trading session that saw prices oscillate due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics. The settlement price represents a marginal increase from the previous day, reflecting a slight rebound in prices after a recent decline.

The price movement can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the ongoing maintenance at the Troll field in Norway, which has disrupted gas flows, has tightened the supply. Additionally, warmer weather across Northwest Europe is expected to boost demand, further pressuring prices. Moreover, President Trump’s shortened deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine has raised fears of fresh sanctions on Russian energy exports, potentially impacting global LNG flows [2].

The UK remains highly dependent on imports from Norway, Europe, and global LNG markets due to limited storage capacity. With only 12 days' worth of winter gas in storage, far below EU levels, and North Sea output falling, the UK is at risk of supply disruptions. The UK Gas price fell to 83.43 GBp/thm on August 2, 2025, down 3.93% from the previous day, highlighting the vulnerability of the UK's gas supply chain [2].

Despite the volatility, analysts expect UK Natural Gas to trade at 85.59 GBp/Thm by the end of this quarter and 92.42 in 12 months time, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations [2].

References:
[1] https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CMU25
[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas