ICE Delivers Record Earnings, But 2026 Growth Guidance Cools

Date of Call: Feb 5, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: Record $9.9B for full year 2025, up 6% YOY; Q4 net revenues $2.5B, up 7% YOY.
• EPS: Record adjusted earnings per share of $6.95 for full year 2025, up 14% YOY; Q4 adjusted EPS $1.71, up 13% YOY.
• Operating Margin: Record adjusted operating income of $6B for full year 2025, up 9% YOY.

Guidance:

• Exchange segment recurring revenues expected to grow in mid-single-digit range in 2026.
• Fixed Income & Data Services recurring revenue growth expected in mid-single-digit range, trending towards high end, with high single-digit growth in data & network technology.
• Mortgage Technology total revenues expected to grow in low to mid-single-digit range in 2026.
• 2026 adjusted operating expenses expected to grow 4% to 5% between $4.075B and $4.140B.
• 2026 capital expenditures expected between $740M and $790M.

Business Commentary:

Record Financial Performance in 2025:

• Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. reported record adjusted earnings per share of $6.95, a 14% increase year-over-year, and record net revenues of $9.9 billion, up 6% year-over-year.
• The growth was driven by robust customer engagement, strong demand for risk management tools, and the resilience of their diversified business model.

Energy Market Strength:

• The Exchange segment achieved record fourth-quarter net revenues of $1.4 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with the global oil complex increasing 12% year-on-year.
• This was driven by strong structural demand for energy risk management, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing evolution of the energy market.

Fixed Income and Data Services Growth:

• Fourth-quarter revenues for the Fixed Income Data & Services segment totaled $608 million, with recurring revenues reaching a record $507 million, growing 7% year-over-year.
• Growth was attributed to the increasing adoption of ICE's data and indices, along with the quality of their benchmark products.

Mortgage Technology Performance:

• Mortgage Technology segment revenues totaled $532 million, up 5% year-over-year, with transaction revenues increasing by 20%.
• This was driven by a significant increase in transaction revenues from Encompass closed loans and strong implementations and product expansions.

Strategic Investments and Expense Management:

• Adjusted operating expenses totaled $3.9 billion for the year, reflecting a commitment to cost discipline while investing strategically.
• Expense synergies from the Black Knight acquisition exceeded targets, showcasing ICE's integration capabilities and strategic investments in infrastructure and technology.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• "2025 was a landmark year for ICE. We delivered record adjusted earnings per share... marking the best performance in our company's history." "Based on this momentum, we now expect total expense synergies to reach $275 million by the end of 2028..." "As we begin 2026, we have tremendous momentum."

Q&A:

• Question from Craig Siegenthaler (BofA Securities): Update on mortgage industry health and refi activity impact, and opportunities to modernize mortgage tech stack with blockchain/AI.
  Response: Mortgage market shows improvement with significant loans 'in the money' for refis and better affordability. On technology, AI agents are being rolled out for workflow automation, including data capture, document automation, and customer chatbots, to drive efficiencies.

• Question from Benjamin Budish (Barclays): Concerns about AI disruption to data & analytics businesses and moats/defensibility.
  Response: Moats are built on proprietary mission-critical content, data center proximity, and comprehensive, trusted data (e.g., price/reference data, indices) with long history and depth, making it difficult to replicate.

• Question from Patrick Moley (Piper Sandler): Drivers of strong futures open interest and sustainability, and impact of recent market volatility.
  Response: Sustainability driven by geopolitical issues, energy evolution, and new dynamics like India's trade deal redirecting Russian crude imports, benefiting Brent and other ICE benchmarks. Recent volatility is not seen as a negative but part of the confluence of factors driving activity.

• Question from Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets): When headwind from lower Encompass minimums will come off, and transaction revenue outlook with normalized mortgage market.
  Response: Minimum headwind is improving, with 2021 vintages largely worked through in 2026. For transaction revenue, a normalized market of 7-10M loans could generate incremental revenue of ~$0.5B.

• Question from Daniel Fannon (Jefferies): Outlook for exchange recurring revenues given slower growth guided vs. 2025's strong rate.
  Response: Guidance reflects difficult year-over-year compares; growth will be driven by new customers, some price capture for value delivered, and minimal erosion, with exchange data potentially outperforming overall recurring revenue.

• Question from Kenneth Worthington (JPMorgan Chase): Details on Encompass new customer wins (32), dialogue with large potential customers, and sales cycle length.
  Response: 32 wins in Q4 were part of 90 deals across all market segments and customer types. Large players remain engaged, with success in HELOC, correspondent, and retail channels.

• Question from Simon Alistair Clinch (Redburn Atlantic): Update on transition from SDKs and competitive disruption.
  Response: Transition to web-based Encompass has not hindered sales or increased attrition; clients have prioritized other innovations, but the move enables AI agent integration and remains on schedule.

• Question from Alex Kramm (UBS): Pricing outlook across businesses and January energy RPC pickup sustainability.
  Response: Pricing approach consistent: selective increases in futures and data where value has been delivered. January RPC increase was due to favorable mix (strong TTF performance), not contract changes, and is sustainable.

Contradiction Point 1

Mortgage Contract Minimums Headwind Timeline

Contradiction on when the negative impact from lower loan minimums will be largely resolved.

When will the impact of lower Encompass minimums subside, and how should we assess incremental transaction revenue as the mortgage market normalizes? - Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q4: The headwind from lower contract minimums is expected to be less severe in 2026 than in 2025, as the bulk of renewals from the 2020 and 2021 vintages... are now largely worked through. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)

Elaborate on Q4 dynamics and PennyMac's impact in the quarter? - Daniel Fannon (Jefferies LLC)

2025Q3: The acquisition of Flagstar will roll off in Q4 [2025]. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Competitive Moats for FIDS Business

Contradiction on the primary basis for the business's competitive advantages.

What risks does AI pose to FIDS, and how does its proprietary data advantage compare to replicable software? - Benjamin Budish (Barclays Bank PLC)

2025Q4: The business's strength is built on three pillars: 1. Proprietary Mission-Critical Content... 2. Data Center Opportunity... 3. Comprehensive, Correlated Data Sets... This is not a formulaic offering but one tailored to clients' decision-making processes. - [Christopher Edmonds](President of ICE Fixed Income & Data Services)

What are the data licensing/redistribution arrangements with Polymarket and their P&L impact, ICE's long-term plans including listing event contracts, and whether blockchain technology is a key part of the appeal? - Benjamin Budish (Barclays Bank PLC)

2025Q3: The investment is driven by Polymarket's innovative blockchain settlement architecture, which enables 24/7 non-intermediated settlement. ICE aims to learn from Polymarket's consumer engagement model... with the goal of improving ICE's clearing efficiency and potentially increasing trading volumes. - [Jeffrey Sprecher](CEO) & [Christopher Edmonds](President of ICE Fixed Income & Data Services)

Contradiction Point 3

Mortgage Market Outlook and Loan Origination Potential

Contradictory assessments of the mortgage market's current health and future loan origination volume.

Okay, so the user wants me to take this earnings call question and make it more concise. Let me read through the original input again. The question is asking about the health of the mortgage industry and how the recent rebound in refinance activity is affecting demand trends beyond 2026. Plus, they want an update on opportunities to modernize mortgage tech using blockchain or AI.First, I need to identify the key points. The main topics are the health of the mortgage industry, the impact of the refi rebound on future demand, and updates on modernizing technology. The user wants a concise version, so I should combine the first two parts into one question and the third part into another. Wait, the original question uses "Also," so maybe it's two separate questions. But the user wants it rewritten as a single concise question. Hmm, maybe they can be combined. Let me see. The first part is about the health and the influence of refi rebound on demand beyond 2026. The second part is about modernizing tech with blockchain or AI. So the rewritten question should include both aspects but in a more concise way. Let me try: "What is the current state of the mortgage industry and how is the recent refinance rebound affecting demand trends beyond 2026? Additionally, can you provide an update on opportunities to modernize mortgage technology through blockchain or AI tools?" Wait, the user said to output only the rewritten question, no explanations. Also, the example response in the user's message shows that they combined the two parts with "and" into a single question. Let me check again. The original input has two parts connected by "Also," so maybe the user wants them as two separate questions but concise. But the example response in the user's message (even though it's not shown here) might have combined them. Wait, the user's instruction says to rewrite the input into a concise question. The input is a single question with two parts. So the output should be a single concise question that includes both parts. So combining the two parts with "and" or "as well as." Let me try: "What is the health of the mortgage industry and how is the recent refinance rebound influencing demand trends beyond 2026, as well as opportunities to modernize mortgage technology through blockchain or AI tools?" But that might be a bit long. Maybe split into two parts with a question mark each? But the user says "question" singular. So perhaps two separate questions. But the example in the user's mind might be combining them. Let me check the example again. The input is a single question with two parts connected by "Also," so the output should be a single question. So combining both parts into one question. So the final version would be: "What is the health of the mortgage industry and how is the recent refinance rebound influencing demand trends beyond 2026? Additionally, can you update on opportunities to modernize mortgage technology through blockchain or AI tools?" But the user wants it as concise as possible. Maybe replace "Additionally" with "and" to make it one question. However, the original has two separate questions. The user might want to keep them as two but concise. Wait, the user's instruction says "rewrite the following earnings call question into a concise question." So it's a single question. So combining both parts into one. Final answer: "What is the health of the mortgage industry and how is the recent refinance rebound influencing demand trends beyond 2026, as well as opportunities to modernize mortgage technology through blockchain or AI tools?" But maybe the user prefers two separate questions. Wait, the example in the user's mind (if there was one) might not be clear. But given the input, the original question is two parts. The user's instruction says to output only the rewritten question. So perhaps the best way is to combine both parts into one concise question. Let me check the length. The original is a bit wordy. The rewritten should be concise. So maybe:"What is the health of the mortgage industry and how is the recent refinance rebound impacting demand trends beyond 2026? Also, what opportunities exist to modernize mortgage technology using blockchain or AI tools?"That's two questions but concise. But the user might want one question. Hmm. The user's input is a single question with two parts. The output should be a single concise question. So combining both parts with "and" or "as well as." Let me try:"What is the health of the mortgage industry, how is the recent refinance rebound influencing demand trends beyond 2026, and what opportunities exist to modernize mortgage technology using blockchain or AI tools?"Yes, that's one question with three parts but concise. However, the original had two parts. Maybe that's overcomplicating. Alternatively, keep it as two separate questions but concise. But the user's - Craig Siegenthaler (BofA Securities)

2025Q4: The mortgage market is showing signs of improvement... with this number increasing significantly (to 5.5 million or 7.5-8 million) with further rate declines. - [Benjamin Jackson](President)

Is geography a factor in higher transaction fees and how does the guide account for industry activity trends for the remainder of the year? - Christopher John Allen (Citigroup Inc.)

2025Q2: The industry outlook is difficult to predict, but current trends support remaining within the annual guidance range. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)

Contradiction Point 4

Recurring Revenue Growth Guidance for Mortgage Technology

Contradiction in the expected growth rate for Mortgage Technology recurring revenues between the two quarters.

When will the headwind from lower Encompass minimums subside, and how should we assess incremental transaction revenue potential as the mortgage market normalizes? - Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q4: The headwind from lower contract minimums is expected to be less severe in 2026 than in 2025... This improvement is factored into the guidance for mid-single-digit recurring revenue growth. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)

Does the geography issue lead to higher transaction fees, and how is the company's guidance for the rest of the year influenced by trending industry activity? - Christopher John Allen (Citigroup Inc.)

2025Q2: Confident in the full-year low-to-mid-single-digit revenue growth guidance for Mortgage Technology. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Mortgage Origination Growth Normalization Timeline

Different timeframes given for when the mortgage market will return to a normalized state.

When will the impact of reduced Encompass minimums ease, and how should we assess transaction revenue growth potential as the mortgage market normalizes? - Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets)

2025Q4: In a normalized market (defined as ~7-10 million loans originated annually), transaction revenue could see an incremental increase of approximately $0.5 billion. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)

Can you explain the IMT guidance, including any factors like bank implementation delays or consumer concerns impacting it, and quantify the one-time mortgage-related revenues? - Benjamin Budish (Barclays Bank PLC)

2025Q1: The guidance (mid-teens to flat origination growth) is maintained for Q2 and the rest of the year. - [Warren Gardiner](CFO)