ICE Canola Futures Rise Amid Optimism for China Deal, Harvest Pressure Remains

ICE canola futures are rising in early trading, with gains attributed to China's extension of its anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola. The investigation will now conclude on March 9, 2026, raising optimism for a deal. Chicago soybeans and European rapeseed futures are also higher, while soyoil and Malaysian palm oil are softer. Seasonal harvest pressure remains a bearish influence.

In early trading on September 2, 2025, ICE canola futures posted solid gains, with the extension of China's anti-dumping probe into Canadian canola imports sparking optimism for a potential resolution. The Ministry of Commerce announced that the probe would now conclude on March 9, 2026, providing additional time for negotiations between China and Canada [1].

The preliminary duties of 75.8% imposed on Canadian canola seed imports in August remain in place, but the extension of the probe has raised hopes for a deal that could ease the ongoing trade dispute [1]. A Canadian trade delegation, including Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Prime Minister Mark Carney's parliamentary secretary Kody Blois, is set to travel to China this weekend to discuss the matter [2].

The positive outlook on canola futures is also supported by higher prices in Chicago soybeans and European rapeseed futures, while soyoil and Malaysian palm oil markets are softer. Seasonal harvest pressure continues to exert a bearish influence on the market [2].

The extension of the probe comes as forecasts for the 2025-26 Canadian canola crop are increasing, which could mitigate the impact of losing the China market. The latest Agriculture Canada forecast predicts production at 20.1 million tonnes, up from 19.2 million in the previous year [3]. This increased production could help Canada find alternative markets for its canola exports, although the global oilseed complex remains at lower price levels.

References:
[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-delays-final-ruling-canola-dispute-with-top-supplier-canada-2025-09-05/
[2] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ice-canola-rising-friday-morning-ce7d59d9da80f52c
[3] https://www.producer.com/markets/avoid-bargain-basement-canola-markets-to-ease-tariff-damage/