ICA's Strategic Shift: Balancing Core Market Focus with Baltic Divestment

In March 2025, ICA Gruppen announced the divestment of its Baltic operations—Rimi Baltic—to the Danish Salling Group, a transaction finalized on June 2, 2025, after regulatory approvals [1]. This strategic move, valued at EUR 1.3 billion (approx. SEK 14.4 billion), reflects ICA’s commitment to refocusing capital and resources on its core Swedish market [4]. The sale generated a capital gain of SEK 7 billion and a positive cash flow of SEK 9 billion for ICA, providing critical liquidity to fund investments in Sweden [4]. This analysis evaluates the implications of this shift for customer loyalty and profitability, emphasizing consumer trust and financial resilience.

Financial Resilience Through Strategic Refocusing

ICA’s divestment of Rimi Baltic aligns with a broader strategy to strengthen its domestic market position. The company reported resilience in its first-quarter 2025 results, despite ongoing investments that temporarily pressured earnings [1]. By shedding underperforming or non-core assets, ICA has freed up capital to reinvest in Sweden, where it holds a dominant retail presence. For instance, the company has launched initiatives like the Stammis loyalty program, offering double bonus cheques to members, which underscores its focus on retaining Swedish customers [3].

The financial benefits of the Baltic divestment are clear. The SEK 9 billion cash inflow provides ICA with flexibility to modernize infrastructure, enhance digital offerings, or expand its product portfolio in Sweden. This aligns with long-term goals to solidify market leadership amid competitive pressures from global retailers.

Customer Loyalty in the Baltics: A Smooth Transition?

While ICA’s focus shifts to Sweden, the Baltic markets now fall under Salling Group, a retail giant with extensive experience in large-scale operations. Salling’s acquisition of Rimi Baltic includes 314 stores, e-commerce platforms, and logistics networks across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania [2]. The company’s track record in Denmark—where it operates chains like Føtex and Netto—suggests a capacity to maintain operational continuity and customer relationships.

However, specific details on loyalty program adjustments post-acquisition remain sparse. Prior to the sale, Rimi Baltic operated without notable loyalty initiatives, and Salling has not yet announced changes to reward systems in the region [2]. This lack of transparency raises questions about how customer engagement might evolve. Yet, Salling’s emphasis on technological innovation and sustainability—key drivers of consumer trust—could mitigate potential disruptions [1].

Indirect indicators support confidence in Salling’s ability to preserve customer loyalty. The Baltic e-commerce market, for example, has seen growing trust in online shopping, bolstered by EU consumer protection frameworks [5]. Salling’s integration of Rimi’s digital infrastructure may further enhance this trust, ensuring a seamless transition for Baltic shoppers.

Consumer Trust and Salling’s Financial Stability

Salling Group’s financial health adds another layer of reassurance. Between August 2021 and July 2025, its probability of default declined from 0.071 to 0.048, while its credit rating improved from B2 to A3 [1]. This trajectory reflects prudent risk management and aligns with Salling’s strategic pivot toward international expansion. For Baltic consumers, this stability implies continuity in service quality and pricing, both critical to maintaining trust.

ICA’s divestment also reduces its exposure to the Baltic markets, where Rimi Baltic had faced fluctuating credit risks, peaking at a default probability of 2.558% in July 2022 [2]. By exiting this volatile segment, ICA minimizes potential liabilities, such as IFRS 16 lease obligations, which were explicitly included in the sale [1].

Strategic Implications for ICA and Stakeholders

ICA’s decision to divest Rimi Baltic underscores a calculated approach to long-term value creation. By prioritizing its core market, the company can deepen customer loyalty through targeted initiatives like Stammis while avoiding the operational complexities of managing cross-border retail chains. For investors, this shift signals a focus on financial resilience and disciplined capital allocation.

However, the absence of detailed loyalty program strategies from Salling in the Baltics introduces uncertainty. While Salling’s operational expertise suggests minimal disruption, stakeholders should monitor how the company adapts its existing loyalty frameworks—such as those in Denmark—to the Baltic context.

Conclusion

ICA Gruppen’s strategic shift to refocus on Sweden, coupled with Salling Group’s acquisition of Rimi Baltic, represents a recalibration of priorities in a competitive retail landscape. The financial benefits of the divestment are evident, with enhanced liquidity and reduced risk exposure. Meanwhile, Salling’s financial stability and operational capabilities provide a strong foundation for maintaining customer trust in the Baltics. For ICA, this move is a testament to its agility in navigating market dynamics, ensuring both profitability and long-term customer loyalty in its core markets.

Source:
[1] ICA Gruppen AB, https://news.cision.com/ica-gruppen-ab
[2] Salling Group credit risk analysis, https://martini.ai/pages/research/Salling-b9804c5aca181cb01d0d8fe09a340b38
[3] ICA Gruppen’s Report for First Four Months of 2025, https://www.icagruppen.se/en/archive/press-archive/2025/ica-gruppens-report-for-first-four-months-of-2025/
[4] ICA sells Baltic operations for just over SEK 14 billion, https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ICA-GRUPPEN-6498391/news/ICA-sells-Baltic-operations-for-just-over-SEK-14-billion-49241100/
[5] Lithuania Ecommerce Market | 2019 – 2030, https://www.kenresearch.com/lithuania-ecommerce-market