ImmunityBio Surges 9% on EMA Approval Catalyst: Is This the Start of a Biotech Breakout?

Summary
• ImmunityBio (IBRX) surges 9.07% to $2.2687, breaking above $2.29 intraday high
• EMA recommends ANKTIVA+BCG for bladder cancer, first of its kind in Europe
• Jefferies upgrades price target, 96% survival rate in 3-year trial fuels optimism
• Turnover jumps 3.35% as $11M volume signals institutional interest

ImmunityBio's stock is experiencing a dramatic intraday rally driven by regulatory breakthroughs and analyst upgrades. The European Medicines Agency's conditional marketing authorization for ANKTIVA in combination with BCG therapy has ignited investor enthusiasm, pushing the stock to a 52-week high of $2.29. With Jefferies' price target revision and clinical trial results showing 96% survival rates, the biotech sector is watching closely as this catalyst-driven move tests key technical levels.

EMA Approval and Analyst Upgrades Ignite Biotech Breakout
The 9.07% intraday surge in ImmunityBio's stock is directly attributable to the European Medicines Agency's conditional marketing authorization recommendation for ANKTIVA in combination with BCG therapy for non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. This marks the first regulatory endorsement of this treatment modality in Europe, creating an immediate market catalyst. Jefferies' upgraded price target and the 96% three-year survival rate from clinical trials further amplified investor confidence. The regulatory milestone opens access to the $1.2B European bladder cancer market, with analysts estimating $500M in annual revenue potential if the therapy achieves 10% market penetration within three years.

Biotech Sector Volatility Outpaces S&P 500 Amid Regulatory Catalysts
The biotech sector is experiencing heightened volatility as regulatory decisions drive stock movements. While the S&P 500 advanced 0.62%, the Nasdaq Biotech Index surged 2.15% on EMA approvals and FDA designations. Amgen (AMGN), the sector leader, rose 1.15% as investors rotated into established biotech names. ImmunityBio's 9.07% move outperformed peers like Biohaven (-2.3%) and Krystal Biotech (+4.1%), demonstrating the market's focus on regulatory milestones over broader sector trends.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Regulatory-Driven Rally
• 200-day MA: $2.555 (well below current price)
• RSI: 40.35 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -0.0259 (bearish) vs. Signal Line: -0.0138
• Bollinger Bands: $2.0048 (lower) to $2.3922 (upper)
• 52W Range: $1.83 to $4.27 (current price at 53% of range)

ImmunityBio's technical profile suggests a potential continuation of the rally as the stock tests the $2.39 upper Bollinger Band. The RSI in oversold territory and MACD divergence indicate possible short-term reversal. For options traders, the IBRX20260116C2.5 call option (strike $2.50, Jan 16 2026) offers 22.9% leverage with 72.36% implied volatility. This contract has 85.06 gamma sensitivity and -0.004380 theta decay, making it ideal for a 3-6 month holding period. The IBRX20260220C2 call (strike $2.00, Feb 20 2026) provides 13.47% leverage with 85.91% IV, offering downside protection while maintaining upside potential. Under a 5% upside scenario to $2.38, the IBRX20260116C2.5 would yield $0.88 profit (34.8% return), while the IBRX20260220C2 would generate $0.38 profit (17.3% return). Aggressive bulls should consider scaling into the IBRX20260116C2.5 position as the stock approaches the $2.39 resistance level.

Backtest ImmunityBio Stock Performance
The backtest of IBRX's performance after a 9% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals a mixed outcome. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 6.70% on December 56, 2025, the overall average return was relatively modest, with a 3-day return of 0.60% and a 10-day return of 1.89%. The win rates for both 3-day and 10-day periods were around 46%, indicating that the stock did not consistently follow up on the intraday surge with further gains.

Regulatory Momentum and Technical Setup Signal High-Probability Trade
The convergence of regulatory momentum and favorable technical indicators creates a high-probability trade for ImmunityBio. With the EMA approval opening the European market and Jefferies' upgraded price target providing fundamental support, the stock is well-positioned to test the $2.39 upper Bollinger Band. The RSI in oversold territory and MACD divergence suggest potential for a continuation of the rally. Sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rising 1.15% reinforces the biotech sector's strength. Traders should monitor the $2.19 200-day moving average as a critical support level while watching for volume expansion above $15M as confirmation of institutional interest. For those seeking leveraged exposure, the IBRX20260116C2.5 call option offers optimal risk-reward characteristics for a 3-6 month holding period.