IAMGOLD's Revised Guidance and Gold Market Dynamics: A Path to Outperform?

The gold mining sector is no stranger to volatility, but IAMGOLD (IAG) has carved out a compelling narrative in 2025. With revised production guidance, a resilient balance sheet, and a bullish gold price environment, the company is positioning itself as a standout in a mid-tier gold producer landscape. National Bank's recent reaffirmation of an “Outperform” rating—despite a trimmed price target of C$15.50—highlights confidence in IAMGOLD's operational execution and long-term growth potential. Let's dissect what this means for investors and whether the stock's current valuation offers a compelling entry point.

Operational Resilience: Côté Gold Drives the Narrative

IAMGOLD's 2025 production guidance of 735,000 to 820,000 attributable ounces is anchored by the Côté Gold mine, which reached 100% of its nameplate throughput of 36,000 tonnes per day in June 2025. This milestone is critical: the mine is now operating at full capacity, with 67,000 attributable ounces produced in Q2 2025 alone. By year-end, Côté is expected to contribute 250,000 to 280,000 ounces, a 15% increase from earlier estimates.

The mine's success isn't just about volume—it's about efficiency. IAMGOLD's 93% average gold recovery rate in Q2 underscores operational discipline. Moreover, the company is investing in a 45,000-meter drill program at the Gosselin zone, which could unlock a “super pit” combining Côté and Gosselin. This expansion could add decades of life to the mine and boost production beyond current guidance.

Meanwhile, Essakane and Westwood are stabilizing. Essakane's attributable output is expected to fall toward the lower end of its 360,000–400,000-ounce range due to a 15% government stake increase in Burkina Faso. However, grade improvements and operational stability are offsetting this dilution. Westwood's 125,000–140,000-ounce target reflects a transition to a profitable underground operation, a move that should reduce costs and improve margins.

Financials: Cost Pressures vs. Gold Price Tailwinds

IAMGOLD's updated cost guidance—$1,375 to $1,475 per ounce in cash costs and $1,830 to $1,930 in all-in sustaining costs (AISC)—reflects higher royalties, a stronger Euro, and ramp-up expenses at Côté. While these figures are above initial estimates, they're still competitive in the sector. The company's Q2 2025 $140 million in mine site free cash flow (up from $46 million in Q1 2024) proves its ability to generate liquidity even amid cost headwinds.

The gold price environment is IAMGOLD's ace in the hole. At $3,182 per ounce in Q2 2025—well above the original $2,500 assumption—higher prices are compressing all-in costs as a percentage of revenue. The company now assumes an average realized price of $3,300 per ounce for the remainder of 2025, a 32% increase from 2024. This tailwind, combined with debt reduction efforts (e.g., repaying $40 million in second lien notes), positions IAMGOLD to delever its balance sheet and fund growth.

National Bank's “Outperform” Rationale: A Vote of Confidence

National Bank's C$15.50 price target (a 106% upside from the August 6 closing price of C$7.50) is rooted in IAMGOLD's ability to execute against its 2025 guidance. The bank cites three key factors:
1. Operational scalability: Côté's full throughput and Gosselin's exploration potential.
2. Cost discipline: AISC are expected to decline in H2 2025 as Côté stabilizes.
3. Gold price momentum: A $3,300-per-ounce average in the second half would boost margins and free cash flow.

While the target was trimmed from C$16, it remains the highest among 12 analysts covering the stock (average target: C$10.57). This divergence underscores National Bank's conviction in IAMGOLD's ability to outperform peers in a sector where many are grappling with inflation and supply chain bottlenecks.

Is C$15.50 a Compelling Entry Point?

IAMGOLD's stock is currently in a mixed technical setup. It closed at C$7.50 on August 6, down 2.85% from the previous day, but has gained 6.69% over two weeks. Key support levels at C$7.35 and C$7.20 suggest a potential rebound if the stock tests these areas. However, the 4.74% daily range and rising volume on declining prices signal short-term volatility.

From a fundamental perspective, the stock trades at a discount to its intrinsic value. At C$15.50, IAMGOLD would have a price-to-EBITDA multiple of ~8x, well below the sector average of 12x. This discount reflects skepticism about cost pressures and gold price sustainability, but also creates a margin of safety for long-term investors.

Historical data reveals that IAG's stock has demonstrated a positive response to support levels. For instance, following a support level, the stock has historically risen in 57.52% of 10-day periods, with an average return of 1.70%. Over 30 days, the win rate increases to 60.05%, with an average return of 5.40%. These figures suggest that support levels have historically acted as catalysts for short-term momentum, offering investors a higher probability of positive outcomes when entering positions near these levels.

The Bottom Line: A Buy for the Patient
IAMGOLD's revised guidance and National Bank's “Outperform” rating paint a bullish picture for the remainder of 2025. The company's operational execution—particularly at Côté—proves its ability to scale production and manage costs. While the C$15.50 target may seem ambitious, it's justified by IAMGOLD's strong balance sheet, gold price tailwinds, and exploration upside.

For investors, the key is patience. The stock's current volatility and mixed technical signals suggest a hold/accumulate strategy rather than an aggressive buy. A pullback to the C$7.20–C$7.35 support range would offer a more attractive entry point, especially if gold prices remain above $3,200 per ounce.

In a gold market where scarcity and geopolitical tensions are driving prices higher, IAMGOLD's disciplined approach to growth and cost control makes it a standout. As the company moves toward full production at Côté and executes its Gosselin expansion, the path to C$15.50—and beyond—looks increasingly plausible.