IAEA Struggles to Verify Uranium Destruction After U.S. Airstrikes

U.S. airstrikes targeted three Iranian nuclear sites, but verifying the destruction of uranium stockpiles presents a significant challenge for U.S. and international intelligence agencies. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been unable to inspect the damage at the Fordow uranium enrichment facility, which is located deep inside a mountain in central Iran. This lack of access prevents the IAEA from independently verifying claims that the site was "obliterated."

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, stated that no one, including the IAEA, is currently in a position to fully assess the underground damage at Fordow. Experts emphasize that determining the extent of the damage and whether uranium enrichment capabilities have been destroyed will require time, intelligence assessments, and satellite imagery. Traditional satellite imagery cannot detect uranium, making it difficult to confirm its destruction remotely.

Several technologies can aid in assessing the damage. Specialized aircraft and drones equipped with radiation sensors can detect gamma rays or neutrons, but they must fly extremely close to the ground, making them vulnerable to attack. The U.S. Air Force operates the WC-135 "Constant Phoenix," a fixed-wing aircraft designed to collect atmospheric samples and analyze radioactive isotopes. This aircraft played a significant role in tracking radioactive debris from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. However, detecting radioactive releases from underground facilities is much more challenging.

Neutrino detectors, highly sensitive instruments capable of identifying particles released from nuclear reactions, have the potential for long-range monitoring. However, their use is currently mainly experimental, and they need to be placed relatively close to the source to be effective. Hyperspectral imaging and indirect clues, such as heat signatures and disturbed terrain, can suggest that a facility was struck or damaged, but they cannot confirm the presence or destruction of uranium itself.

While advanced technologies like AI and satellite imagery can help military leaders determine the accuracy of the strikes, verifying the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities may ultimately require on-the-ground investigations. Grossi emphasized the need for diplomatic efforts to allow IAEA inspectors to return to the sites. He stated that the IAEA is ready to play its indispensable role in the process and that negotiations with Iran and the U.S. are ongoing to work towards peace.