Hyperliquid's Price Forecast and Market Resilience: A Deep Dive into On-Chain Activity and Risk Positioning

The derivatives market, long a cornerstone of crypto's speculative and hedging ecosystems, is showing signs of recovery in 2025. Amid this backdrop, Hyperliquid has emerged as a pivotal player, leveraging on-chain infrastructure to redefine decentralized trading. This article examines Hyperliquid's price trajectory and market resilience through the lens of on-chain activity, risk positioning, and macroeconomic dynamics, drawing on granular data from recent market cycles.

On-Chain Activity: Volume, Open Interest, and User Growth

Hyperliquid's on-chain metrics in 2025 underscore its dominance in decentralized derivatives. The platform reported $32 billion in daily trading volume and $16 billion in open interest by year-end, reflecting robust liquidity and user confidence in its infrastructure. Quarterly data reveals a $2.95 trillion trading volume across 198.9 billion transactions, with a user base expanding to 1.4 million-a fourfold increase from 2024. This growth is not merely quantitative: Hyperliquid's market share in derivatives reached 47.6% by open interest in early 2026, cementing its position as the sixth-largest derivatives platform globally.

The platform's resilience during market turbulence further strengthens its appeal. During a major October 2025 crash, Hyperliquid maintained 100% uptime and avoided bad debt, activating its cross-margin Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) system only once in over two years. This operational stability, coupled with CEX-level speed and on-chain transparency, has attracted both retail and institutional traders.

Risk Positioning: Bad Debt and Structural Vulnerabilities

Despite its strengths, Hyperliquid faced challenges in 2025. The platform incurred $4.9 million in bad debt during Q4 due to a self-inflicted market manipulation attack involving the Solana-based memecoin POPCAT. This marked Hyperliquid's third such incident in the year, following similar attacks in March and July. In each case, attackers exploited thin-liquidity tokens to trigger cascading liquidations, forcing liquidity providers (HLPs) to absorb losses. These events highlight a critical vulnerability in decentralized perpetual markets: high-leverage positions on low-liquidity assets remain a systemic risk.

However, Hyperliquid's ADL system mitigated broader instability. During the October crash, the platform's solvency mechanisms ensured fair liquidations without compromising stability, demonstrating the efficacy of its risk management protocols. While bad debt incidents are concerning, they also reveal the platform's capacity to adapt-its infrastructure has proven robust enough to absorb shocks while maintaining user trust.

Price Forecast: HYPE's Trajectory in a Volatile Market

Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, is intrinsically linked to the platform's on-chain activity. As of Q1 2025, HYPE's value was tied to metrics like Total Value Locked (TVL) and daily transaction counts, with the platform reporting $1 trillion in cumulative trading volume and 715,000 users. Technical analysis suggests HYPE has experienced volatility, breaking out of an upward channel and facing bearish momentum indicators like the MACD and Chaikin Money Flow. However, analysts project a potential recovery to $60 if buying pressure resumes, driven by the platform's high throughput (100,000 transactions per second) and $5 billion in liquidity.

Fundamental factors also support long-term optimism. Hyperliquid's transition to a permissionless infrastructure layer via HIP-3 in Q3 2025 enabled third-party builders to deploy perpetual markets, expanding its revenue streams. This strategic shift, combined with a 28% quarter-over-quarter increase in application-layer fees, positions HYPE to benefit from broader DeFi adoption. Yet, competition from platforms like Aster and macroeconomic headwinds-such as Bitcoin's April and November 2025 corrections- pose risks.

Market Sentiment and Institutional Adoption

Q3 2025 marked a turning point for Hyperliquid. Analyst ratings highlighted its capture of 70–75% of DEX perpetual volume and $1 billion in annualized revenue, driven by institutional participation and regulatory clarity. On-chain activity metrics, including user growth and fee revenue, correlated strongly with positive sentiment. For instance, Hyperliquid's token treasury expansion and engagement with institutional investors reinforced its market position despite broader volatility.

The platform's unique value proposition-CEX speed with on-chain transparency-has attracted a hybrid user base. As ETF flows normalize and institutional adoption accelerates, Hyperliquid's infrastructure is well-positioned to capture market share, particularly if it introduces cross-chain integrations or new asset classes.

Investment Outlook

Hyperliquid's trajectory in 2025 reflects a blend of promise and caution. Its on-chain metrics and resilience during crises underscore its potential to thrive in a recovering derivatives market. However, structural risks-such as bad debt from manipulative attacks-require ongoing mitigation. For investors, HYPE's price forecast hinges on two factors: continued innovation (e.g., HIP-3's infrastructure layer) and macroeconomic stability. While short-term volatility is likely, the platform's ability to adapt and scale could drive long-term value, particularly if it outpaces competitors in product development and liquidity provision.

In a market where infrastructure and governance are paramount, Hyperliquid's balance of speed, transparency, and resilience makes it a compelling case study-and a high-conviction investment for those willing to navigate its risks.