Hyperliquid's Path to $30: Assessing Buy-Side Momentum and Whale Activity

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, where technical indicators and on-chain dynamics often serve as the compass for navigating uncertainty. Hyperliquid (HYPE), a derivative trading platform with a growing user base, has recently drawn attention as its price hovers near critical support levels while exhibiting signs of accumulating bullish momentum. With HYPE trading at $25 as of December 2025, the question on investors' minds is whether the asset can break through key resistances to reach $30-a threshold that would validate the broader market's optimism.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed but Encouraging Signal

Hyperliquid's technical profile in December 2025 reveals a delicate balance between bearish and bullish forces. The price has consolidated laterally after a five-day decline, with immediate resistance at the S1 Pivot Point of $26.03 and a trendline resistance at $28.00. A successful breakout above these levels could target the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $32.36, a level that historically acts as a magnet for liquidity and trend-following algorithms.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a notable upward shift, exiting the oversold zone at 37, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a bullish crossover with its signal line, hinting at a possible reacceleration in buying pressure. However, the technical rating for HYPE remains a "sell" for the week and "strong sell" for the month, reflecting broader market caution. This divergence underscores the importance of corroborating technical signals with on-chain data to avoid misreading the market's intent.

Derivatives data adds nuance to this picture. Open Interest (OI) in HYPE futures has risen by 4.86% in the last 24 hours, while the positive funding rate of 0.0073% favors long positions, indicating growing institutional and retail participation in bullish bets. These metrics suggest that while the near-term technical outlook is not uniformly positive, the underlying momentum is shifting in favor of buyers.

Technical Indicators: A Mixed but Encouraging Signal

Hyperliquid's technical profile in December 2025 reveals a delicate balance between bearish and bullish forces. The price has consolidated laterally after a five-day decline, with immediate resistance at the S1 Pivot Point of $26.03 and a trendline resistance at $28.00. A successful breakout above these levels could target the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $32.36, a level that historically acts as a magnet for liquidity and trend-following algorithms.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a notable upward shift, exiting the oversold zone at 37, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a bullish crossover with its signal line, hinting at a possible reacceleration in buying pressure. However, the technical rating for HYPE remains a "sell" for the week and "strong sell" for the month, reflecting broader market caution. This divergence underscores the importance of corroborating technical signals with on-chain data to avoid misreading the market's intent.

On-Chain Activity: Whales Signal Conviction

On-chain data paints a compelling narrative of strategic accumulation by large investors, or "whales," which often precedes significant price moves. In December 2025, HYPE witnessed a surge in whale activity as major players capitalized on the price decline. Over 826,000 HYPE tokens-worth more than $21.5 million-were added to large wallets, with notable batches including 427,441 HYPE at $27.09 and 398,830 HYPE at $25.22. These purchases, concentrated near key support levels, suggest a deliberate effort to absorb downside pressure and stabilize the price.

Further evidence of bullish intent comes from a whale who deposited $12.5 million in USDC on Hyperliquid, using the funds to purchase HYPE and place long orders for 3,500 ETH in the $3,190–$3,215 range. Another whale, Wallet 0xDAeF, and an anonymous entity, Wallet 0x3300, each added $5 million in USDC within a single hour, retaining substantial reserves for further accumulation. Such behavior-large, rapid deposits paired with a focus on liquidity-indicates long-term conviction rather than speculative trading.

The strategic use of USDC to minimize slippage and avoid price spikes is particularly noteworthy. By layering purchases across multiple price points, these whales are signaling confidence in HYPE's fundamentals while mitigating the risk of triggering short-term volatility. This pattern is often observed in assets poised for a breakout, as large investors seek to establish positions without unduly influencing the market.

Macro Context and the Path Forward

The broader macroeconomic environment further supports the case for a near-term breakout. With the Federal Reserve signaling potential rate cuts in early 2026 and geopolitical trade tensions creating uncertainty in traditional markets, liquidity is increasingly flowing into crypto assets. Hyperliquid, with its high-performance trading infrastructure and growing retail adoption, is well-positioned to benefit from this trend.

However, risks remain. The "strong sell" technical rating for the month highlights the possibility of a deeper pullback if HYPE fails to reclaim the $28.00 trendline resistance. Investors should monitor the October 10 low at $20.82 as a critical support level; a break below this could trigger a reevaluation of the bullish thesis.

Conclusion

Hyperliquid's journey to $30 hinges on the convergence of technical and on-chain signals. While the current technical rating is bearish, the RSI and MACD suggest a short-term reversal is plausible. More compelling is the on-chain evidence of whale accumulation, which reflects long-term conviction and a strategic effort to stabilize the price. If HYPE can overcome its immediate resistances and maintain its derivatives-driven bullish momentum, the path to $30-and beyond-becomes increasingly viable.

For now, the market is watching. And in the world of crypto, patience often rewards those who recognize the signs of a breakout before the crowd does.