Hyperliquid News Today: NVIDIA's Earnings Test AI Hype Amid Geopolitical and Investor Divergence

NVIDIA's Q3 2025 earnings report, set for November 19, has become a pivotal event for the AI industry, with the chipmaker's $500 billion order pipeline and geopolitical challenges dominating investor sentiment. According to reports, the company's CEO, Jensen Huang, has highlighted unprecedented demand for its Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, driven by hyperscalers like Microsoft and Amazon, despite U.S. export restrictions that have erased its China market share. This order book, spanning 2025 and 2026, underscores NVIDIA's dominance in the AI race but also raises questions about the sustainability of the current boom.

Analysts expect NVIDIA to report revenue of $54.8 billion and EPS of $1.25, a 56% year-over-year increase. However, the market is scrutinizing whether the company can maintain this growth trajectory, particularly as concerns about an "AI bubble" intensify. Retail investors remain bullish, with 76% of Stocktwits users predicting an earnings beat, while platforms like Polymarket see 93% odds of outperformance. Yet, institutional caution persists. SoftBank's liquidation of NVIDIA holdings and Michael Burry's bearish bets highlight the divergence in market sentiment.

The geopolitical landscape remains a critical wildcard. U.S. export controls have cost NVIDIA an estimated $4–5 billion annually in China sales, forcing the company to accelerate diversification efforts. Meanwhile, Beijing's new mandate requiring state-funded data centers to use domestic chips adds structural risks. Huang's recent backtracking on comments suggesting China would "win the AI race" further underscores the volatility.

Investor skepticism centers on the concentration of demand in a few hyperscalers and the risk of overbuilding. Red flags include rising venture capital down-rounds in AI startups, with 15.9% of VC deals in 2025 classified as down rounds - a 10-year high. If this trend accelerates beyond 22–25%, it could signal a slowdown in infrastructure spending. Similarly, mixed signals from hyperscalers like Meta, which emphasized "disciplined" AI investment in its Q3 call, contrast with Microsoft's continued aggressive capex expansion.

NVIDIA's stock, down 5% since Huang's October announcement, reflects this tension. While Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives remains bullish, citing the AI revolution's early stages, DA Davidson and others stress the need for robust Q4 guidance to justify its $250 price target. The company's ability to maintain high margins (73.5% non-GAAP gross margin) and secure Sovereign AI contracts will be critical in countering narratives of overreliance on hyperscalers.

Globally, markets are bracing for the earnings report to act as a barometer for the AI sector's health. The Nikkei and other Asian indices opened cautiously, with U.S. dollar strength and geopolitical tensions in the China-Japan standoff adding to macroeconomic uncertainty. A "beat and raise" scenario could propel NVIDIA toward $265 price targets, but a miss or conservative guidance may trigger a reevaluation of AI valuations.

As the AI industry stands at a crossroads, NVIDIA's Q3 results will test whether the current frenzy is a durable inflection point or a bubble waiting to burst.