Hyperliquid (HYPE): Can Whale Accumulation Counteract Near-Term Weakness and Set Up a Strong Rebound?

In the volatile world of decentralized finance (DeFi), contrarian value investing often thrives on identifying undervalued assets amid market pessimism. Hyperliquid (HYPE), a high-performance perpetual trading platform, has faced significant near-term headwinds in late 2025, including token unlocks, competitive pressures, and technical fragility. Yet, beneath the surface, whale accumulation and structural resilience suggest a potential rebound. This analysis explores whether these bullish indicators can counteract current weaknesses in a bearish environment.

Bearish Catalysts: Structural Risks and Market Dynamics

Hyperliquid's price trajectory in late 2025 has been shaped by recurring token unlocks and macroeconomic pressures. On November 29, 2025, the Hyperliquid team unlocked 1.75 million HYPE tokens, with 609,000 (23%) sold via OTC desks, far below initial fears of $500 million in monthly sales. However, the unlock schedule-a monthly release of 10 million tokens until October 2027-remains a structural overhang. This creates persistent selling pressure, particularly as some tokens enter the spot market or are liquidated through OTC channels.

Compounding these challenges, HYPE's market share in decentralized perpetuals has declined to under 20% due to competition from platforms like Aster and Lighter. Technical indicators also signal fragility: the Chaikin Money Flow and MACD point to short-term weakness, while the price broke below the critical $30 support zone in December 2025, sliding to $28.35. Regulatory uncertainties in the U.S. and EU further cloud the outlook.

Bullish Indicators: Whale Accumulation and Restaking Resilience

Despite these headwinds, on-chain activity reveals a compelling narrative of accumulation and long-term commitment. In November 2025, four key wallets restaked 234,600 HYPE (9% of the supply), while the Hyperliquid team staked an additional 854,000 HYPE (33%) through Hyperlabs. This restaking surge, combined with whale accumulation reaching an 18-month high, suggests that major holders view HYPE as undervalued.

Whale behavior further underscores this dynamic. While one wallet sold 75,000 HYPE ($2.2 million) in November, others staked tokens, indicating a balance between liquidity needs and strategic holding. Notably, large long positions-such as a $45.85 million exposure-reflect medium-term confidence in HYPE's fundamentals. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's buyback program absorbed 21,700 HYPE tokens in 24 hours, signaling institutional resolve to stabilize the price.

Contrarian Thesis: A Rebound Setup in a Bearish Environment

The interplay of these factors creates a classic contrarian setup. HYPE's price decline to a seven-month low of $28.27 has triggered oversold conditions (RSI at 28.88), with analysts flagging $26.5 as the next critical support level. If this holds, a rebound toward $30–$34 becomes plausible, particularly as whale accumulation intensifies. Historical patterns show that HYPE has historically found equilibrium above $30, and a successful defense of this zone could reignite bullish momentum.

Moreover, the HIP-3 protocol upgrade-a catalyst for $15 billion in open interest-demonstrates Hyperliquid's technological edge. Combined with restaking incentives and institutional buybacks, these fundamentals provide a counterweight to unlock-related selling pressure. The key question is whether whale accumulation can outpace the structural risks posed by ongoing unlocks.

Risk Assessment and Long-Term Outlook

While the near-term outlook remains cautious, long-term projections are optimistic. Price forecasts suggest HYPE could reach $39–$60+ by mid-2026 under favorable conditions, with a 2030 target of $125. However, risks persist: regulatory actions, further market share erosion, and a breakdown below $24 could prolong the downtrend. Investors must also monitor the $26.5 support level, as a breach would test the resilience of whale accumulation.

Conclusion: A Contrarian Opportunity in the Making

Hyperliquid (HYPE) embodies the tension between structural risks and latent value. While token unlocks and competitive pressures justify short-term caution, whale accumulation, restaking, and institutional buybacks present a compelling case for a rebound. For contrarian investors, HYPE's oversold conditions and strong on-chain fundamentals offer an opportunity to capitalize on a potential reversal-provided the $26.5–$30 support range holds. In a bearish environment, patience and a focus on structural resilience may reward those who dare to look beyond the noise.