Hyperliquid's HYPE Token Targets $5 Trillion Valuation on Stablecoin Boom

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has made a bold prediction for Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, forecasting a 126x surge over the next three years. The forecast was shared during the WebX 2025 conference in Tokyo, where Hayes outlined a macroeconomic model linking the token’s potential to the expansion of the stablecoin market. According to his analysis, global stablecoin supply is expected to grow to $10 trillion by 2028, with Hyperliquid capturing a 26.4% share of the associated trading volume. This would drive annualized fees for the decentralized exchange from $1.2 billion to $258 billion, creating a valuation that significantly outpaces the token’s current fully diluted valuation of approximately $41.05 billion [1].

At the heart of Hayes’ model is the assumption that Hyperliquid will continue to expand its dominance in the decentralized perpetual futures market. Data from Redstone, a research firm, indicates that Hyperliquid has already captured over 75% of the decentralized perpetual exchange market within less than two years of launch. The platform’s decentralized infrastructure, running on its own Layer-1 blockchain, has enabled it to handle up to $30 billion in daily volume, with some pairs nearing Binance’s levels. This has been further supported by rising on-chain activity, including total open positions hitting an all-time high of 198,397 and open interest climbing above $15 billion [1].

The token’s performance has also shown signs of momentum. HYPE traded at $45.64 at the time of the conference, having gained nearly 4% in the previous 24 hours. Over the past year, the token has surged by 263.05%, reaching an all-time high of $49.84 on July 14, 2025. The recent volume spikes have been particularly notable: Hyperliquid’s 24-hour trading volume reached $1.56 billion, while DefiLlama reported that transaction fees hit a monthly high of $93 million. The total value locked in the platform stands at $685 million, approaching its February peak [1].

Hayes’ projections were supported by recent on-chain activity and strategic capital movements. On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain noted that Hayes himself had acquired a significant amount of HYPE in early August, including 58,631 tokens, alongside other assets such as LDO and ENA. This follows a broader trend of institutional and whale-level activity, with Hyperliquid’s growing appeal as a venue for large-scale transactions, including nine-figure BTC deposits and substantial ETH withdrawals [4].

The market response to Hayes’ forecast has been swift. HYPE’s price jumped 5% following the conference, despite a broader correction in the crypto market. The token’s daily trading volume surged by 78% to $278 million, signaling strong bullish sentiment among traders. Analysts at Syncracy Capital highlighted that Hyperliquid’s BTC spot trading volume had surpassed the combined totals of Coinbase and Bybit, reinforcing its position as a top-tier decentralized exchange [3].

While Hayes’ prediction of a 126x return is highly optimistic, it is grounded in a detailed financial model that accounts for stablecoin growth, fee capture, and terminal valuation. The assumptions include a 5% discount rate applied to the projected $5.161 trillion in terminal value, which results in the 126x upside potential. However, the success of this model hinges on several factors, including the continued expansion of the stablecoin economy and Hyperliquid’s ability to maintain and grow its market share in the decentralized derivatives space [1].

Source:

[1] Hyperliquid spikes as Arthur Hayes predicts 126x upside in (https://cointelegraph.com/news/hyperliquid-hype-spikes-arthur-hayes-predicts-126x-upside)

[2] Hyperliquid Price, HYPE Price, Live Charts, and Marketcap (https://www.coinbase.com/price/hyperliquid)

[3] Arthur Hayes Gives 126x Upside Potential for Hyperliquid (https://coingape.com/arthur-hayes-gives-126x-upside-potential-for-hyperliquid-at-a-massive-5-trillion-fdv/)

[4] This Altcoin Is A 12500% Crypto Bet Until 2028, Says (https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1066547-20250825)