Hyperliquid HYPE Price Tests Support as HIP 4 Proposal Locks Supply

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is trading near $38.23 following the introduction of the HIP 4 proposal, which establishes native event futures and prediction markets. This mechanism requires builders to stake 1 million HYPE per market slot, effectively locking supply while expanding the token's utility beyond its core perpetuals. Despite total platform revenue crossing $993 million and trading volume hitting an all-time high of $3.64 trillion, the token remains 37% below its $59.30 peak.

The market is currently testing the $36 support level, with analysts questioning whether the new prediction markets can reverse current selling pressure. Technical indicators show a bearish MACD crossover with RSI sitting below 50, though the fundamentals remain strong. A daily close above $40 would signal a next leg toward $44, while a loss of $36 risks a further pullback toward $30.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and founder of Maelstrom, has exclusively purchased HYPE tokens, citing the platform's dominant market position and aggressive buyback mechanism. His team is buying HYPE while selling other assets, driven by Hyperliquid's generation of approximately $1 billion in annual trading fees. Hayes maintains a bullish outlook with a price target of $150 by August 2026, despite a recent unlock of 9.92 million HYPE tokens valued at roughly $375 million.

How Does HIP 4 Impact Token Supply and Utility?

The HIP 4 proposal introduces prediction markets requiring builders to stake 1 million HYPE per slot, tightening supply and expanding utility for the token. The proposal introduces native event futures and prediction markets to the platform, requiring builders to stake 1 million HYPE per market slot. The move expands HYPE beyond perpetuals into a broader financial layer.

The staking requirement increases demand and reduces circulating supply at a time when trading volume has crossed $3.64 trillion at an all-time high. The move positions Hyperliquid as a direct competitor to Polymarket, adding revenue while tightening token supply through the builder stake requirement.

HIP 4 could lock significant supply through builder staking. CoinPedia projects a range of $25 to $90 for 2026 depending on adoption, with an average target near $50. Revenue crossing $993 million confirms strong fundamentals, but RSI below 50 and a bearish MACD signal caution.

What Drives Arthur Hayes' $150 Price Target for HYPE?

Arthur Hayes forecasts HYPE reaching $150 by August 2026 based on Hyperliquid's aggressive 97% buyback model and expansion into commodities and stock index perpetuals. The platform's deflationary mechanism dynamically adjusts buyback volumes based on price to stabilize long-term value, offsetting the selling pressure from recent token unlocks.

Under this model, the majority of Hyperliquid's revenue is used to buy and burn HYPE tokens, creating upward price pressure. The mechanism is dynamic: buyback volumes decrease when the token price is high and increase when prices are low, helping to stabilize supply pressure across different market cycles.

Hayes noted that even in a stress-test scenario where the full 9.92 million tokens are distributed monthly, the token would still be approximately 75% above its current price if priced at 12 times earnings. The platform is also expanding into permissionless listings of commodities and stock index perps through its HIP-3 protocol, with an upcoming HIP-4 prediction market launch expected to drive further revenue.

Why Has the Market Absorbed Recent Token Unlocks?

Hyperliquid is unlocking 9.92 million tokens worth $375.84 million, a move Arthur Hayes views as manageable due to the platform's robust buyback model and revenue growth. Hayes predicts a 4x increase to $150 by August 2026, citing that the platform's deflationary mechanisms can absorb supply shocks from unlocks.

A scheduled distribution of approximately 9.9 million HYPE tokens to core contributors occurred on April 6. Such unlock events typically create downward price pressure. However, HYPE's price remained resilient, indicating the market had effectively absorbed the anticipated supply increase.

Market data indicates Hyperliquid leads the decentralized perpetual futures market with daily volumes reaching $3.19 billion, significantly outpacing competitors like StandX. The platform's expansion into real-world assets, including tokenized oil futures, has attracted liquidity during periods when traditional exchanges are closed.

Institutional interest remains strong, with the Hyperliquid Assistance Fund accumulating significant holdings at an average price of approximately $24.3 per token. Market data supports this view; a 9.9 million token unlock on April 6 was absorbed without triggering major selling pressure, suggesting the market had already priced in the additional supply.