Hyperliquid & Berachain Unlocks: February's Liquidity Flood

The upcoming token releases represent a significant shift in supply dynamics. Hyperliquid's HYPE will unlock approximately 9.92 million tokens on February 6th, worth about $305 million and accounting for 2.79% of the circulating supply. This is paired with a drastic reduction in team emissions, where the firm will distribute just 140,000 tokens that day-a 90% drop from January's 1.2 million and a 90% reduction from December's 2.6 million.

The scale of the Berachain BERA unlock is even more pronounced. The token will see approximately 63.75 million tokens released on the same day, valued at roughly $30.8 million and representing a massive 41.7% of the circulating supply. This event dwarfs the HYPE unlock in terms of percentage impact on the token's outstanding shares.

The market impact of these unlocks hinges entirely on recipient behavior and existing liquidity. A large portion of the BERA supply is likely to be sold, creating immediate downward pressure. The HYPE unlock, while smaller in percentage terms, adds fresh supply to a market already watching for signs of profit-taking. The drastic cut in team emissions is a positive signal, but it does not eliminate the risk of coordinated selling from unlocked wallets.

Market Context and Price Impact

HYPE's recent rally is a direct market reaction to reduced supply. The token is up more than 55% over the past week, trading at $29.95 today. This surge coincides with the project's drastic cut in team emissions, where February's release of approximately 140,000 tokens represents a 90% monthly drop. The move has alleviated near-term sell pressure, allowing the price to climb from its recent lows.

BERA's technical picture is far more fragile. The token is down 3.47% in the past 24 hours and has fallen 32% over seven days. A key breakdown occurred earlier this week when the price breached critical support at $0.62. This technical failure, combined with weak social sentiment and thin trading volume, signals heightened vulnerability to further downside. The situation is compounded by the looming Feb 6 refund clause deadline for a major investor, adding a layer of forced selling risk.

The broader context is one of significant, concentrated supply. February's unlock calendar is estimated to release $250–$500M+ in value across major tokens. Historically, such events-especially those involving large portions of circulating supply-increase the risk of 10–25% short-term price swings. The market's ability to absorb this flood of new tokens will depend on underlying demand and liquidity, which are currently under strain for BERA and watching for exhaustion in HYPE's recent rally.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch

The immediate catalyst is the Feb 6 refund clause decision for Brevan Howard's Nova fund. If the fund triggers its option to reclaim a $25M investment, it could force additional BERA sales to cover repayment. This creates a near-term liquidation risk that has already amplified selling pressure since late November, adding a layer of forced selling to the unlock's natural supply overhang.

The market's ability to absorb the flood will be determined by on-chain flow and order book depth. With BERA's low turnover (0.246) indicating thin liquidity, even moderate selling can cause magnified price moves. Traders must watch for whether buy orders accumulate at key support levels like $0.62 or if sell walls are quickly absorbed. For HYPE, the focus shifts to whether the recent 55% rally has exhausted its momentum or if underlying demand can sustain the price above its new support.

A potential offset to the circulating supply increase is ecosystem buyback activity. The Berachain project has a Buyback metric listed, suggesting protocol treasury funds could be deployed to purchase tokens. If executed, this would directly reduce net supply and provide a floor for price action. The scale and timing of any such buybacks will be a critical variable in determining whether the unlocks drive sustained volatility or are absorbed by targeted capital.