Will Hyperliquid's $1B Treasury Overcome the Unlock Overhang in 2026?

Hyperliquid's aggressive buyback strategy and institutional-grade treasury management have positioned it as a standout player in the crypto market. With a $1 billion capital raise underway and 97% of trading fees allocated to HYPE token repurchases, the platform is leveraging structural demand to counteract a looming supply overhang. This analysis evaluates whether Hyperliquid's buyback program can neutralize the $410 million monthly unlock risk, using technical levels, market sentiment, and buyback efficiency as key metrics.

Structural Demand: Buybacks as a Deflationary Engine

Hyperliquid's buyback program has been a cornerstone of its tokenomics. In 2025, the platform spent $644.64 million to repurchase 21.36 million HYPE tokens, representing 46% of all token buyback spending in the year according to reports. This effort reduced circulating supply by 2.1% and averaged $65.5 million/month in buybacks, with a peak of $110.62 million in August 2025 according to data. The average repurchase price of $30.18/HYPE according to analysis-well below the current price of ~$34-demonstrates efficient capital allocation.

The platform's 97% fee-to-buyback ratio creates a self-reinforcing loop: higher trading volume (Hyperliquid's DEX captured 21.2% of total crypto spot trading in October 2025 according to CoinMarketCap) generates more fees, which fund larger buybacks. This dynamic is critical in 2026, as Hyperliquid Strategies-a corporate entity formed via a merger-has filed to raise $1 billion to expand its HYPE treasury. Analysts project that this capital will enable $2.1 billion in 2026 buy pressure, potentially offsetting $598 million in unlock-driven sell pressure according to market analysis.

Supply Overhang: Unlock Dynamics and Mitigation

Hyperliquid faces a significant supply challenge: 10 million HYPE tokens unlock monthly from November 2025 through October 2027 according to Defi reports. At current prices (~$34), this represents $340 million in potential sell pressure per month. However, historical data suggests the platform is prepared to absorb this. In November 2025, Hyperliquid executed buybacks four times the selling pressure from a $9.5 billion unlock event according to market analysis, demonstrating its capacity to stabilize the token.

The $1 billion treasury raise further strengthens this position. By November 2025, the Assistance Fund had already accumulated 36 million HYPE tokens ($1.2 billion) according to public data, and the new capital will allow Hyperliquid to accelerate repurchases. This strategy aligns with broader trends of institutional adoption, as public companies increasingly allocate crypto assets to treasuries.

Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, and Sentiment

Technical indicators highlight both risks and opportunities. HYPE is currently trading near $34, with key support at $35–$38 and resistance at $50 and $60 according to price prediction. A confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern could drive the token toward $20 if the neckline breaks according to technical analysis. However, strong on-chain metrics-such as $2.2 million in 24-hour trading fees according to FastBull-suggest short-term resilience.

Market sentiment remains mixed. The Fear & Greed Index is at 23 (extreme fear) according to market data, while the RSI (36.82) and MACD indicate neutral to bearish conditions according to technical indicators. A breakdown below $31–$32 could expose HYPE to further declines toward $27–$29.50 according to price analysis. Conversely, a rebound above $37 could trigger a recovery toward $42–$45 according to technical outlook.

Buyback Efficiency and Long-Term Outlook

Hyperliquid's buyback efficiency is a critical factor. By repurchasing tokens at $30.18/HYPE according to reports, the platform is acquiring assets at a discount to current valuations. This efficiency is amplified by the base fee-burning model on HyperEVM, where gas fees are paid in HYPE and partially burned according to the whitepaper, creating additional deflationary pressure.

Long-term optimism is bolstered by Hyperliquid's $3.56 billion TVL and $91 million/month revenue run rate according to market analysis. If the platform maintains its market share in perpetual DEX trading, HYPE could see price appreciation to $53.76 in Q2 2026 and $66.86 in Q3 2026 according to price prediction. Analysts project that the $1 billion treasury will further insulate the token from unlock volatility, particularly as 94% of fees remain allocated to broad buybacks under the proposed AF-1/AF-2 structure according to market analysis.

Strategic Entry vs. Caution

While Hyperliquid's buyback program is robust, risks persist. The $340 million/month unlock could test market confidence, especially if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. However, the platform's institutional-grade treasury strategy, efficient buybacks, and strong DEX fundamentals provide a compelling case for strategic entry. Investors should monitor $35–$38 support and $50 resistance as key decision points.

In conclusion, Hyperliquid's $1 billion treasury and 97% fee-to-buyback model are well-positioned to counteract the unlock overhang. While short-term volatility is likely, the structural demand created by institutional adoption and deflationary mechanics suggests HYPE remains a high-conviction opportunity for 2026.