HYPE Token Price Potential: Analyzing Whale-Driven Market Sentiment and On-Chain Positioning in Q4 2025

The HYPE token, native to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, has experienced a complex interplay of whale-driven market sentiment and on-chain positioning dynamics in late 2025. As the token navigates a bearish technical structure and looming supply shocks, understanding the behavior of large holders and institutional-grade investors becomes critical for assessing its price potential.

Whale Accumulation Amid Supply Shocks

Despite a $351.5 million token unlock on December 29, 2025, which released 9.92 million HYPE tokens into circulation, whale activity has shown a mix of caution and conviction. A notable whale accumulated 490,000 HYPE tokens over two weeks, valued at $12.1 million, while another major investor deposited 480,997 HYPE tokens via USDC at an average price of $25.07. These actions suggest that institutional-grade investors view the token's dip as an accumulation opportunity, even as broader market volumes declined by 36%.

Post-November 2025 unlocks, further evidence of whale confidence emerged. Two whales deposited $5 million in USDC to buy HYPE, and another opened a $4.72 million leveraged long position. However, this accumulation has been partially offset by a $122 million withdrawal by a single whale wallet, highlighting the dual-edged nature of whale-driven sentiment.

On-Chain Positioning and Supply Dynamics

On-chain data reveals a nuanced picture of HYPE's supply distribution. The first major team unlock in December 2025 allocated 1.74 million HYPE tokens across 29 wallets, with 609,100 tokens sent to an OTC desk and 234,600 restaked. Notably, the Hyperliquid team itself restaked 854,254 HYPE tokens, signaling internal confidence. This contrasts with the 902,000 tokens that remained untouched in fifteen wallets, raising questions about liquidity absorption.

The November 29 unlock of 1.75 million HYPE tokens (valued at $9.5 billion) saw only 23% sold via OTC desks, far below initial sell-pressure forecasts. Over 40% of the tokens were restaked, including 33% by the team through Hyperlabs, while 35% remained in team wallets. This low selling pressure was further mitigated by a $82 million monthly buyback program, which absorbed four times the unlock's selling volume.

Market Sentiment and External Catalysts

Market sentiment in late 2025 was heavily influenced by external factors. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 20, indicating "Extreme Fear", driven by ETF outflows and a flash move on a trading venue. The Trust Wallet incident, though later clarified to affect only a specific extension, exacerbated volatility. Despite these headwinds, HYPE's one-time token burn of 37.5 million tokens ($912 million) partially offset unlock-related selling pressure.

Analysts remain divided on the token's trajectory. While some argue that order books can absorb the increased supply, others caution that HYPE remains in a bearish channel, with price levels struggling to break above resistance. Technical indicators like RSI and Bollinger Bands suggest continued downward momentum, with key support at $21 and resistance at $27.

Balancing Risks and Opportunities

The HYPE token faces a critical juncture. On one hand, whale accumulation and protocol upgrades like HIP-3 and HyperEVM aim to enhance long-term value. On the other, monthly unlocks of ~9.9 million HYPE tokens ($236 million at current prices) will persist through 2027, creating ongoing sell-pressure risks. Additionally, 1.3 million HYPE tokens unstaking in the short term could further strain liquidity.

For investors, the key variables will be:
1. Price action around $25 support: A sustained move above $29–$30 could signal a reversal.
2. Buyback efficacy: The $82 million monthly program must continue to outpace unlock-related selling.
3. Institutional adoption: HyperEVM's mainnet launch and HIP-3 upgrades could attract institutional capital.

Conclusion

HYPE's price potential in Q4 2025 hinges on the balance between whale-driven accumulation and structural supply shocks. While on-chain positioning and protocol upgrades offer long-term optimism, the token's bearish technical structure and upcoming unlocks present near-term risks. Investors must closely monitor whale activity, buyback programs, and institutional adoption to gauge whether HYPE can stabilize and rebound.