HYPE: A Strategic Buy as Whale Accumulation and Structural Support Align

In the volatile landscape of 2025, Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, has emerged as a compelling case study in accumulation-driven inflection points. Amid a broader bearish crypto market, HYPE's price action and on-chain dynamics suggest a critical juncture where whale accumulation and structural support align to create a high-probability entry point for strategic investors.

Whale Accumulation: Conviction Over Momentum

Whale activity in HYPE has defied conventional market behavior, with large investors prioritizing dips over rallies. Over the past two months, $11.58 million was spent to acquire 427,441 HYPE tokens at an average price of $27.09, while a $10 million accumulation of 398,830 HYPE occurred around $25.22 in just five days. These purchases, concentrated during price declines toward the $22–$24 range, signal conviction rather than short-term speculation.

The strategic nature of this accumulation is further reinforced by $37 million in USDC inflows into large wallets, indicating a deliberate buildup of liquidity to sustain further buying. Notably, wallets like 0x72b23 have executed multi-phase accumulations, including a $12.1 million purchase of 490,000 HYPE over 14 days in late 2025, followed by staking activity that locks tokens into the ecosystem. Such behavior suggests long-term positioning, not speculative trading.

Structural Support and Weakening Bearish Momentum

HYPE's technical structure paints a picture of waning bearish control. The token is currently trading within a descending wedge pattern, with price hovering just above the $22.26 support level. This pattern, historically a precursor to bullish breakouts, reflects diminishing downward momentum.

Key indicators corroborate this narrative. The RSI is in oversold territory without fresh downside expansion, and recent price candles show progressively shallower lows compared to earlier declines. This incremental loss of seller control is critical: as available sell supply tightens-evidenced by negative spot exchange netflows and declining large wallet outflows-the asset becomes increasingly sensitive to demand shifts.

Historical parallels reinforce this dynamic. In late 2025, a $12.1 million whale accumulation coincided with a 5% price surge to $25, demonstrating how large-scale buying can catalyze short-term rebounds. If HYPE reclaims the $31–$32 support zone-a historically stabilizing floor-it could trigger a relief rally toward $36–$37, with potential for a $42–$60 move if volume surges.

Institutional Confidence and Deflationary Tailwinds

Institutional-grade confidence in HYPE is evident through on-chain activity. A $340 million buyback program and significant restaking by major wallets underscore long-term value retention. Additionally, a proposed token burn of 37 million HYPE (3.71% of total supply) could reduce the token's fully diluted valuation by 13%, creating a deflationary tailwind. These measures directly counteract the 2.66% circulating supply unlock event in late 2025, which temporarily added $344 million in liquidity.

The alignment of whale accumulation with protocol upgrades-such as USDH stablecoin launches and HIP-3 governance proposals-further strengthens HYPE's fundamentals. As noted by on-chain analysts, these developments position HYPE to weather competitive pressures from DEX rivals like Aster while maintaining product innovation.

Risk/Reward and the Path Forward

While HYPE remains in a corrective phase, the risk/reward profile is skewed toward upside. A successful breakout above $34–$35 could validate the descending wedge pattern and attract broader market participation. Conversely, a breakdown below $31–$32 would likely test $29.50 and $25, depending on macroeconomic conditions.

For investors, the key inflection point lies in the interplay between whale accumulation and structural support. With 61.65% of top trader accounts maintaining long positions as of December 23, 2025, the market is pricing in a potential reversal. This conviction is further supported by controlled long bias and tightening sell supply, which amplify price sensitivity to demand shifts.

Conclusion

HYPE's current positioning at a critical accumulation zone-backed by whale activity, structural support, and institutional-grade tokenomics-makes it a strategic buy for investors seeking asymmetric upside in a bearish market. While risks persist, the alignment of on-chain fundamentals and technical indicators suggests that HYPE is primed for a trend reversal. As the crypto market enters a new phase in 2026, HYPE's unique confluence of factors positions it as a high-conviction opportunity.