HYPE's Path to Recovery: Is $37 the Critical Threshold for a Major Rebound?

The cryptocurrency market has long been a theater of volatility, where technical levels and macroeconomic forces collide to shape price trajectories. For Hyperliquid (HYPE), the $37 price level has emerged as a focal point in 2025, with analysts debating its role as a potential catalyst for a significant rebound. This article examines the technical and macroeconomic dynamics surrounding HYPE's $37 threshold, assessing whether it represents a turning point for the asset.

Technical Analysis: A Mixed Signal at $37

HYPE's technical indicators paint a nuanced picture. The 50-day moving average (at $33.7) remains above the 200-day moving average (at $0), forming a "golden cross" that historically signals bullish momentum. However, the MACD line's position below the signal line suggests lingering bearish pressure. This divergence highlights a tug-of-war between short-term optimism and long-term caution.

The $37 level itself has shown historical significance. It has acted as both a resistance and support zone, with multiple tests recorded in late 2025. A notable double-bottom pattern emerged as HYPE rebounded from the $30–$32 support range, climbing to $33.84. Analysts argue that a sustained break above $37 could trigger a rally toward $42–$44, while a breakdown below this level risks a pullback to $32–$33. The RSI, currently at 36.5, indicates neutral conditions, neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase.

Volume patterns further complicate the narrative. While the 14-day RSI of HYPE/USD at 61.370 suggests a buy signal, the broader descending channel pattern implies that a breakout-either upward or downward-could amplify volatility. Investors must monitor whether institutional or retail buyers step in to defend $37, as seen in a recent rebound from $37 to $39.

Macro-Driven Catalysts: Supply, Sentiment, and Innovation

Beyond technicals, macroeconomic factors are shaping HYPE's recovery potential. A proposed token burn of 37 million HYPE tokens-reducing circulating supply by over 13%-has already driven a 2% price increase to $26.66. This deflationary move, coupled with growing derivatives activity (funding rate at 0.0073% favoring longs), signals cautious optimism. However, the Fear & Greed Index remains at an extreme fear level of 16, underscoring broader market pessimism.

Product innovation is another key driver. Hyperliquid's launch of HyperEVM and HyperCore has enhanced its infrastructure, attracting institutional liquidity. Partnerships with Anchorage Digital and Circle's CCTP V2, alongside compliance with U.S. and EU regulations, have bolstered credibility. Yet, risks persist: token unlocks, competition from platforms like dYdX, and liquidity challenges (evidenced by $11 million in daily liquidations) could derail progress.

Globally, the blockchain sector is influenced by regulatory clarity and macroeconomic trends. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and the proposed repeal of SEC's SAB 121 are reducing uncertainty for crypto adoption. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures and interest rate dynamics are pushing investors toward cryptocurrencies as inflation hedges. For HYPE, these macro forces could amplify the significance of the $37 level if market sentiment improves.

Interplay of Technical and Macro Factors

The $37 threshold's importance hinges on how macroeconomic developments interact with technical patterns. A successful token burn and positive derivatives activity could strengthen buyer sentiment, potentially propelling HYPE above $37 and triggering a bullish breakout. Conversely, if macroeconomic headwinds-such as a broader market downturn or regulatory setbacks-intensify, the $37 level may crumble under pressure, leading to a deeper correction.

Retail and institutional behavior will also play a critical role. The recent rebound from $37 to $39 suggests retail buyers are defending this level, but institutional participation remains limited. If Hyperliquid secures more institutional backing or expands its product suite, it could attract capital that stabilizes the $37 zone.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Threshold

HYPE's $37 level is a critical juncture where technical and macroeconomic forces converge. While the golden cross and recent rebounds hint at bullish potential, conflicting indicators like the bearish MACD and extreme fear sentiment caution against over-optimism. For a major rebound to materialize, HYPE must not only break above $37 but also sustain momentum amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Investors should closely monitor volume dynamics, institutional activity, and broader market sentiment to gauge whether $37 becomes a springboard for recovery or a battleground for further decline.