Can HYPE Break Free from $25 Amid Whale Accumulation and Upcoming Token Unlocks?

The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token has become a focal point for crypto investors, caught in a tug-of-war between bullish whale activity and looming short-term supply risks. As the token hovers near $25-a critical psychological and technical threshold-the interplay of institutional accumulation and scheduled token unlocks will likely determine whether HYPE can escape its current consolidation phase or succumb to renewed bearish pressure.

Whale Accumulation: A Signal of Conviction or a Market Manipulation Play?

Recent on-chain data reveals a striking pattern of whale accumulation that suggests long-term conviction in HYPE's value proposition. A major Hyperliquid whale, identified by the wallet address 0x72b23, has executed two significant accumulation phases in 2025: a $14.4 million purchase of 580,000 HYPE tokens between July and October 2025, followed by a $12.1 million acquisition of 490,000 tokens over 14 days in early 2026. Notably, this whale has repeatedly transferred portions of its holdings back to the Hyperliquid platform, a move that could indicate staking, liquidity provision, or strategic repositioning rather than a short-term sell-off.

Such behavior aligns with broader trends in decentralized exchanges (DEXs), where whale activity often acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Publicized trades by influential actors-such as James Wynn's high-profile DEX transactions-have historically triggered copy-trading and leveraged positions, amplifying price momentum. For HYPE, this dynamic is amplified by Hyperliquid's transparent on-chain ledger, which allows traders to react in real time to large-scale movements.

However, whale accumulation alone is not a guarantee of price resilience. The token's current price remains below its all-time high, and the recent $332.37 million token unlock has introduced fresh volatility. Analysts remain divided: while some highlight Hyperliquid's strong fundamentals-such as high trading fees and institutional adoption-others warn that increased supply could trigger a wave of sell pressure.

Token Unlocks: A Double-Edged Sword for HYPE's Price Action

The most immediate threat to HYPE's stability comes from scheduled token unlocks. A major event on January 6, 2026 will release 12.46 million HYPE tokens (3.61% of the circulating supply), valued at $328 million. Historical precedents, such as the November 2025 unlock of 10 million tokens, suggest that such events often trigger short-term selling pressure and volatility. Traders have already priced in part of this risk, with early selling activity observed ahead of the unlock.

Yet, Hyperliquid's team has implemented mechanisms to mitigate dilution risks. Token burns-such as the 37.5 million HYPE tokens burned in December 2025-and daily $2 million buybacks have helped stabilize the price. These measures have reduced the circulating supply and tightened liquidity, creating a more favorable environment for price discovery. Additionally, HYPE's technical indicators show signs of weakening bearish momentum: the token has rebounded from a weekly low of $24.03, breaking above key moving averages, while open interest has stabilized.

The Battle for $25: Technical and Sentimental Crossroads

The $25 level represents a critical juncture for HYPE. On the technical front, the token is trading near the base of a descending wedge pattern, with shallow lows suggesting diminishing bearish momentum. A breakout above this level could trigger a retest of the $30–$35 range, while a breakdown below $20-a key support level-could reignite the downtrend.

Sentimentally, the market is polarized. Whale accumulation has coincided with a decline in exchange supply, as spot netflows remain negative, signaling reduced selling intent. Meanwhile, professional traders on Binance have taken a long bias, with 61.65% of accounts holding long positions as of December 23, 2025. This suggests that institutional players are positioning for a potential rebound rather than a continuation of the bearish trend.

However, risks persist. The HIP-3 protocol upgrade and macroeconomic factors-such as Federal Reserve policy-add layers of uncertainty. Social media-driven FOMO and retail participation could also amplify volatility, particularly if the January 2026 unlock coincides with broader market weakness.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Forces

HYPE's ability to break free from $25 hinges on the delicate balance between whale-driven demand and supply-side risks. While institutional accumulation and token-burning initiatives provide a structural floor, the January 2026 unlock and lingering technical fragility (evidenced by the Chaikin Money Flow and MACD indicators) pose significant headwinds.

For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor on-chain activity and liquidity metrics closely. If whales continue to accumulate while exchange supply remains constrained, HYPE could test its previous highs by mid-2026. Conversely, a failure to hold $25-especially in the wake of the unlock-may force the token into a deeper correction. In this high-stakes environment, patience and risk management will be paramount.