US Hydrogen Production to Primarily Come From Natural Gas, EIA Reports

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported that most US hydrogen production is expected to come from natural gas. The EIA also stated that natural gas will be the primary feedstock for hydrogen production in the US until at least 2030. The report highlights the importance of natural gas in the production of hydrogen, which is expected to play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its Annual Energy Outlook 2025 (AEO2025), which provides insights into the future of hydrogen production in the United States. According to the report, most hydrogen production is projected to come from natural gas, with a significant increase in production by 2050 [1].

In the AEO2025, the EIA projects that hydrogen production will increase by around 80% by 2050 compared to 2024. This growth is primarily driven by natural gas, with steam methane reforming (SMR) being the primary method of hydrogen production. Only a negligible amount of hydrogen is expected to be produced via electrolysis, which uses electricity to produce hydrogen from water [1].

The report highlights the importance of natural gas in the production of hydrogen, which is expected to play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon economy. The EIA estimates that the size of the hydrogen market was 10 million metric tons (MMmt) in 2018, equivalent to approximately 1,340 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) or about 1.8% of end-use energy consumed in the United States that year. By 2050, the market is projected to grow to 14.3 MMmt, with natural gas accounting for over 80% of the supply [1].

The EIA also notes that the transportation sector is expected to account for most of the rising hydrogen consumption, driven by the deployment of hydrogen fuel cells in heavy-duty vehicles to meet policy standards [1]. However, the report also considers various scenarios, such as the Low Oil and Gas Supply case, which shows how the high cost of natural gas feedstock can reduce hydrogen production.

The resolution of trade deals with the US and the Asian transition to clean energy are also expected to provide strong tailwinds to the global natural gas market. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has suggested that these factors could significantly boost the demand for natural gas [2].

In conclusion, the EIA's AEO2025 report underscores the critical role of natural gas in the production of hydrogen in the United States. As the demand for hydrogen increases, driven by the transition to a low-carbon economy, natural gas is expected to remain the primary feedstock for hydrogen production until at least 2030.

References:
[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65845
[2] https://www.fow.com/insights/trade-deals-asian-energy-transition-to-boost-natural-gas-market-ice