HUT Just Tested the $100 Line It Broke for the First Time in Its History—and Faded. The Re-Test Decides Everything

Deck: Hut 8 moved a full day's typical range in one session on AI-infrastructure hype, not bitcoin. Everything now runs through $100: hold it and the next leg targets $108–111; lose it and the chase crowd gets trapped.

Hut 8 (HUT) just did in one session what it normally takes a full week to cover. The stock traded up to $101.27 and sits at $98.60, up about 8.8% on the session. That $8.00 advance matches the stock's 14-day average true range almost exactly—a full ATR in a single pop, on turnover near 5% of the float. This is not a routine wobble by HUT's own volatile standards; it is the strongest move the tape has produced in weeks, and it landed with the stock's nose pressed against a line it has been failing to hold.

That line is $100. HUT broke $100 for the first time in company history back in May on the news of a giant lease, and it has not been able to stay above it since. Now it is back for another test, and the session's ending tells you the tension is unresolved: price punched to $101.27, then faded back to $98.60, below the big round number. Everything runs through $100 now.

Who is under pressure at $100

Every buyer who stepped in near $100 in May and watched the stock spend the summer under their average is sitting on trapped inventory. When a price returns to break-even, that crowd is the most eager to exit—which is why a climb into the line tends to stall. But if HUT instead reclaims $100 and holds it, those sellers get proven wrong, and any trader who shorted the fade is the one now trapped. A level with this much memory does not just mark a price; it sorts out who is holding the losing side.

The participation supports taking the level seriously. HUT is 8.8% higher on roughly 5.7 million shares, and the move arrives well above a 50-day average of about $94.25 and a 200-day near $76.32, with the 120-day return around +107%. RSI sits near 56—strong, but with room before it screams overbought. The only blemish is the intraday rejection itself: punching through and snapping back is exactly the pattern that becomes a fakeout if the reclaim never arrives.

This is not a bitcoin trade

The biggest thing an investor could be missing is the driver. Bitcoin is around $77,000, roughly flat and actually a bit below where it sat a few days ago—so the rally is not a crypto move wearing a HUT costume. Hut 8 has repositioned itself as an AI-infrastructure landlord, developing data centers that will host hardware for AI compute customers, and the September rally has been riding that narrative. Freedom Capital recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $132 price target, a concrete number for a hyperscaler-leasing story.

The catch is how far out the payoff sits. Hut 8's portfolio counts roughly 949 MW of contracted IT capacity and about $26.6 billion of expected base-term contract value, but that cash flows only as campuses energize. Beacon Point's first energization is targeted for the first quarter of 2027, and material AI revenue is not expected until the second quarter of 2027. In the meantime the company still reported a net loss of about $177 million in Q2, most of it unrealized digital-asset markdowns, on revenue that roughly doubled to $74.9 million. The chart is pricing a real but distant delivery—which is why every energization milestone carries this much weight.

The line that matters

$100 is the deciding level. It was first broken in company history in May, it has consistently failed to hold since, and today's fade means the tape is still unresolved at the close of the move. Above the session high of $101.27, the path reopens toward the $108–111 band where HUT topped out in May and July, with the low-$130s the bigger supply zone beyond that. Below it, the challenge is not just a stumble—it is the third rejection at the same ceiling, which turns today's buyers into trapped inventory.

Scenario	Trigger	Path	Invalidation	Horizon
Breakout holds	Daily close/reclaim above $101.27	$108–111, then low-$130s	Falls back under $100	Days to weeks
Rejection	Loses ~$94 (50-day) on a close	$91–92 breakout base, then air toward $88	Holds above $94 and reclaims $100	Days

One more tell worth a skeptical eye: in the latest session the largest order sizes were net sellers—blocks showed roughly $17.7 million in against $26.9 million out, and large orders about $17 million in against $22.4 million out—while retail flow was a modest net buyer. A single session of flow is not a verdict, but it is the opposite of the "institutions loading up" story the up-close volume might imply. The buyers today may be the natural counterparty to supply that was already working out.

Hold $100 and the AI-infrastructure run resumes with a clean target zone in sight; lose $94 and the setup is broken and the chasers are the ones holding the bag. The level has chosen its sides. The next sessions just have to decide which one is right.