Humanoid Robots Stumble Forward in Half-Marathon Showcase: A Glimpse into the Future of Automation

The first-ever humanoid robot half-marathon, held in Beijing in April 2025, was equal parts triumph and disaster. Of 21 robots competing, only four finished the 21-km course within an extended cutoff time of 4 hours and 10 minutes—a stark contrast to human runners, who clocked finishes in under 3 hours. The race, a showcase of China’s ambition to dominate humanoid robotics, revealed both progress and profound limitations. For investors, the event offers a window into the promise—and pitfalls—of this emerging industry.

The Race Results: A Mismatch of Progress and Primitivism

The star performer was Tiangong Ultra, developed by the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center. It finished in 2 hours and 40 minutes, the only robot to meet the original 4-hour cutoff. But its victory came with caveats: it required three battery swaps during the race and relied on a human handler to prevent falls. Meanwhile, the smallest robot, Little Rascal N2, collapsed into penalties for using three substitutes, while others, like Huan Huan and G1, failed entirely—crashing into barriers or overheating.

Ask Aime: Why did humanoids struggle in the Beijing race?

Human runners, meanwhile, dominated. An Ethiopian male winner finished in just 1 hour, 2 minutes, and 36 seconds, a time that would have placed him among the top 5% of human marathoners globally. Even the slowest human finishers outpaced most robots.

The Bigger Picture: China’s Robotics Ambition

This race was no mere curiosity. It underscored China’s stated goal, outlined in its 2023 policy blueprint, to lead global humanoid robotics by 2025, with ambitions to mass-produce robots for manufacturing, disaster response, and beyond. State media framed the event as proof of progress, contrasting it with Western competitors like Boston Dynamics’ Atlas (now owned by Hyundai) or SoftBank’s Pepper.

But the race also exposed gaps. Robots struggled with energy efficiency, environmental adaptability, and autonomy. For instance, Tiangong Ultra’s overheating joints and reliance on handlers highlighted the need for breakthroughs in battery technology and AI navigation.

Investment Implications: Where to Bet?

The event suggests three key investment themes:
1. Battery Technology: Robots like Tiangong Ultra require frequent recharging. Companies advancing solid-state batteries or energy-dense storage (e.g., QuantumScape, Enevate) could see demand rise.
2. AI Navigation: Robots faltered on uneven terrain and unpredictable obstacles. Firms like Waymo or Cruise, which specialize in autonomous systems, may pivot toward humanoid applications.
3. Government-Funded Innovation: China’s state-backed firms, such as the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, are likely to receive continued funding. Investors might track partnerships between these entities and global tech giants.

The Bottom Line: A Long Road Ahead

The Beijing race was a milestone, but humanoid robots remain a work in progress. With only 19% of robots finishing the course—and many requiring human intervention—the industry is years away from mass commercialization. Yet the stakes are high: the global humanoid robotics market is projected to grow from $2.5 billion in 2020 to $21 billion by 2030, driven by applications in healthcare, logistics, and disaster recovery.

Investors should focus not on the robots themselves but on the enablers: battery tech, AI algorithms, and the infrastructure to support them. As Oregon State’s Alan Fern noted, “There’s no clear leader yet—but whoever masters autonomy and durability will define this industry.”

For now, the humanoid race is far from over. But as Tiangong Ultra’s finish proves, the finish line is in sight—if not yet within reach.

Conclusion
The 2025 humanoid robot half-marathon was a critical test of China’s robotics ambitions. While Tiangong Ultra’s performance signaled progress, the broader takeaway is clear: humanoid robots are still years away from matching human capability. Investors should prioritize companies addressing core challenges—energy efficiency, navigation, and durability—rather than betting on robots themselves. With China’s policy backing and global competition heating up, this sector will demand patience, but the payoff for early movers could be immense. As the race showed, the future of automation is coming—but it’s still stumbling forward.