Huione Guarantee Ban Drives 100% User Surge to Rival Marketplace

Dark market activity on Telegram has persisted despite the ban of Huione Guarantee, a marketplace that was shut down on May 13. According to a report by Elliptic, the ban resulted in a rapid shift of activity to other platforms, particularly Tudou Guarantee, a rival marketplace in which Huione owns a 30% stake. The ban led to the closure of thousands of Huione Guarantee channels and usernames, but merchants quickly moved their operations to Tudou Guarantee, which saw a more than doubling of its user count and inflows matching Huione’s pre-shutdown volumes.

Guarantee markets operate in Chinese on Telegram and settle exclusively in USDT. These markets provide services essential to large-scale online fraud, including stolen data and money laundering pathways. The escrow model used in these markets allows buyers and sellers to resolve disputes without exposing their real identities, while Tether’s dollar peg eliminates local currency volatility. This distinct payment rail from Huione Pay, a Cambodia-based payment firm still processing large USDT volumes, has been a key factor in the persistence of dark market activity.

Elliptic’s report tracked more than 30 active Guarantee markets and warned about fake venues that target inexperienced criminals. The closure of Huione Guarantee sent temporary shock waves through a network of hundreds of thousands of scammers, intermediaries, and brokers across Southeast Asia and China. However, Elliptic’s data showed no enduring decline in overall Guarantee-market volume one month later, indicating that liquidity migrated swiftly to replacement channels. The report concluded that coordinated, sustained removals will be required to disrupt an ecosystem built on Telegram escrow and USDT settlements.

Despite the ban, the broader dark market structure continues to expand within the messaging app. The downfall of Huione Guarantee disrupted one node, but the ecosystem remains robust. Observers sometimes confuse Huione Guarantee with Huione Pay, but Elliptic separated the two through wallet analysis and noted that Huione Pay’s traffic remained high even after regulatory actions. The persistence of dark market activity on Telegram highlights the resilience of these networks and the challenges faced by regulators in disrupting them.