HPE Stock Rallies 15.68% in Four Days as Technicals Signal Strong Bullish Momentum

Hewlett Packard (HPE) concluded its most recent session with a notable 3.76% gain, closing at $21.25 after trading between $20.26 and $21.47. This marks the fourth consecutive day of upward momentum, resulting in a cumulative 15.68% rally over this period, supported by elevated trading volumes of 29.6 million shares—signaling strong buyer conviction.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal a pronounced bullish formation. The 11.08% surge on June 30 featured a long-bodied green candle closing near its high, followed by three smaller-bodied candles that maintained gains above $20.48. This pattern indicates consolidation after a breakout, with resistance now emerging near the $21.47 high. Support is established at the June 30 gap-up opening level of $20.12, while a close above $21.47 would target new yearly highs.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages display robust bullish alignment. Current price action ($21.25) trades significantly above all three key averages (calculated at ~$19.20, $18.50, and $17.80, respectively), confirming a long-term uptrend. The 50-day MA recently crossed above the 200-day MA (a "Golden Cross") in Q1 2025, reinforcing structural strength. Short-term dips toward the rising 50-day MA may offer buying opportunities barring a breakdown below $19.20.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) maintains a bullish posture, with the histogram expanding above its signal line since mid-June. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator exhibits overbought readings (K: 85, D: 82, J: 91), suggesting near-term exhaustion risks after the 15.68% surge. However, sustained MACD momentum implies pullbacks could remain shallow. Divergence is absent—both oscillators align with the price uptrend—reducing reversal probability without bearish confirmation.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded sharply during the June 30 breakout, as price breached the upper Bollinger Band ($20.97). Subsequent sessions saw consolidation within the bands, with the upper band now at $21.70 and the 20-day average at $20.40. Contraction to the middle band ($20.40) would indicate a healthy retracement. A close above $21.70 would signal renewed bullish acceleration, while a drop below $20.40 may trigger profit-taking.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends strongly validate the uptrend. The June 30 rally occurred on 58.1 million shares—the highest volume in three months—confirming institutional participation. Follow-up sessions maintained above-average volume, notably 26.4 million and 29.6 million shares, dismissing the rally as a short squeeze. Declining volume during minor pullbacks (e.g., June 27: 17.1 million shares) signals limited selling pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 74, hovering above the overbought threshold (70) after recent gains. While this warns of consolidation, its reliability as a reversal signal is weakened by the stock’s strong momentum backdrop. Historically, HPE’s RSI has sustained >70 levels during powerful uptrends (e.g., April 2025 rally). Traders should monitor for RSI divergence on any pullback but interpret overbought conditions cautiously within established uptrends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025 uptrend (trough: $12.51 on April 8; peak: $21.47), key retracement supports emerge at $18.85 (23.6%), $17.50 (38.2%), and $16.25 (61.8%). The recent consolidation respected the 23.6% level ($18.85), which now converges with the 50-day MA ($19.20) to form a strong support zone. A sustained hold above $18.85 suggests continuation toward $23.00, while failure opens risk to $17.50.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence: The $18.85–$19.20 zone (Fibonacci 23.6%, 50-day MA, and prior resistance) offers critical support. Volume validation during breakouts and bullish moving average sequencing further strengthen the uptrend thesis.
Divergence: While KDJ signals overbought conditions, this lacks confirmation from MACD (no bearish crossover) or volume (no distribution patterns). The RSI overbought warning is the sole counter-indicator, though contextualized by HPE’s momentum characteristics. Probabilistically, the weight of evidence favors bullish consolidation or measured continuation absent a decisive close below $19.20.