HPE Shares Drop 1.41% As Bearish Pressure Tests Key Support At 20.44

Hewlett Packard (HPE) shares declined 1.41% in the most recent session, extending losses to two consecutive days with a total decline of 2.73%. The closing price settled at $21.04, within a daily range of $20.44–$21.62, accompanied by above-average trading volume of 16.99 million shares.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns indicate bearish pressure near the $21.62–$21.76 resistance zone. The August 18 bullish candle (close: $21.63) was negated by two consecutive bearish closes, forming a mini-top pattern. The $20.44–$20.59 level has emerged as strong support, tested multiple times in August, including during the August 12 reversal (hammer candle) that catalyzed a 3.55% rally. A sustained break below $20.44 could trigger further downside toward $19.60, while recapturing $21.62 may signal trend resumption.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (around $20.25) remains in bullish alignment above the 100-day ($19.80) and 200-day ($18.40) averages, confirming an intermediate uptrend. However, the current price at $21.04 hovers below the 20-day EMA ($21.20), suggesting near-term consolidation. The ascending 200-day MA supports the broader bullish structure, with the 50-day MA acting as dynamic support during pullbacks.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows weakening momentum, hovering near the zero line after a bullish crossover in late July. The KDJ oscillator (K: 45, D: 55, J: 25) indicates a neutral-to-bearish near-term bias as the %J line dips toward oversold territory. Neither indicator currently signals a decisive trend reversal, though bearish divergence is noted as price tested resistance while MACD peaks descended in August.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bandwidth has contracted 18% over the past week, reflecting diminishing volatility and impending directional bias. Price currently trades near the middle band ($21.20), after failing to sustain above the upper band at $21.85. A compression break below $20.90 (lower band) could accelerate selling, while holding above $21.20 may prelude an upside breakout. The bands’ symmetrical squeeze reinforces the criticality of the $20.44–$21.76 range resolution.
Volume-Price Relationship
Downside volume expansion (16.99M shares on August 20) validates the recent bearish momentum, exceeding the 15-day average volume by 12%. However, the August 12 reversal rally occurred on 17.05M shares (highest volume in 30 days), establishing high-conviction support at $20.44. Diminishing volume during the July uptrend raises sustainability concerns, requiring renewed accumulation to challenge resistance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (55.1) resides in neutral territory after retreating from near-overbought conditions (68.6 on August 13). This cooldown follows the failed breakout attempt above $21.76 resistance. While RSI divergence is absent, the indicator’s current midpoint position suggests equilibrium between buying and selling pressures. Traders should monitor whether RSI holds above 50 to maintain bullish momentum bias.
Fibonacci Retracement
The primary Fibonacci grid drawn from the April 8 trough ($12.51) to the August 13 peak ($21.76) reveals critical levels. The 23.6% retracement at $19.58 aligns with the 50-day MA and July swing lows, offering major support. The 38.2% level ($18.22) converges with the 100-day MA. Current price action near the 61.8% extension of the April–August rally ($20.86) indicates this level as immediate support. A secondary grid from the June 20 low ($17.96) shows the 38.2% retracement at $20.30 reinforcing the $20.44–$20.30 support confluence.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence exists around $20.30–$20.44 (Fibonacci 38.2%, swing low support, and Bollinger lower band), making it a critical defensive zone for bulls. Bearish divergence appears between price and volume: the August highs near $21.76 occurred on lower volume than June’s rally peak ($21.29 on July 10), indicating weakening upside participation. The MACD/KDJ consolidation amid price resistance tests further suggests near-term exhaustion. Probabilistically, the confluence of moving averages below the price and Fibonacci supports favors eventual upside resolution if $20.30 holds, though Bollinger compression warns of impending volatility expansion.