Howmet Shares Drop 2.69% Amid Surging Volume and 182nd Market Activity as AUKUS Review Fuels Uncertainty and Hints at Medium-Term Recovery Potential

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) closed at $170.90 on August 15, 2025, reflecting a 2.69% decline from its previous close. The stock saw a surge in trading volume of $560 million, a 58.86% increase from the prior day, ranking it 182nd in market activity. Despite intraday volatility between $170.34 and $176.00, the share price remained near its 200-day moving average of $140.81, with technical indicators suggesting heightened short-term uncertainty.

Market sentiment was influenced by the Pentagon’s review of the AUKUS security pact, which raised concerns about U.S. defense manufacturing timelines. Howmet, a key supplier in shipbuilding and aerospace, faced pressure as investors reassessed exposure to government-dependent sectors. Options activity highlighted this volatility, with August 22nd $172.5 and $175 call contracts showing elevated trading volumes. The stock’s 32.18 RSI reading signaled oversold conditions, but a bearish MACD of -0.63 and compressed Bollinger Bands suggested caution for near-term rebounds.

Backtest analysis of HWM’s historical performance revealed mixed short-term outcomes following sharp declines. After intraday drops exceeding 3%, the stock showed a 62.50% win rate over three days with an average return of 1.16%. The 10-day win rate improved to 68.10%, averaging 2.88% returns, while the 30-day period yielded a 7.05% average gain with a 73.32% success rate. The maximum observed return of 13.01% occurred on day 59 post-dip, indicating potential for recovery over medium-term horizons.