Howmet Aerospace Surges 2.9% to 52-Week High Amid Defense Sector Turbulence – What’s Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Howmet Aerospace (HWM) hits $226.67, a 52-week high, with a 2.91% intraday gain
• Company announces Q4 and FY2025 results on Feb 12, 2026
• Defense sector buzzes with $1.5T Trump defense budget proposal and NATO Arctic expansion
• Options chain shows heightened activity in 215–225 strike calls ahead of earnings

Howmet Aerospace’s stock has surged to a 52-week high amid a volatile defense sector backdrop. With the company set to report Q4 results in mid-February and global defense spending hitting record levels, investors are scrambling to decode the catalysts. The stock’s 2.91% gain today mirrors broader sector optimism but diverges from Boeing’s 2.03% rise, hinting at unique momentum. Technicals and options data suggest a pivotal inflection point as the stock tests critical resistance.

Q4 Earnings Anticipation and Defense Sector Catalysts Ignite Short-Term Bullishness
Howmet’s rally is driven by dual forces: the upcoming Q4 earnings report and a surge in defense sector activity. The company’s Feb 12 results date has created a short-term options-driven liquidity surge, with 215–225 strike calls showing elevated turnover. Meanwhile, global defense news—ranging from Trump’s $1.5T budget proposal to NATO’s Arctic expansion—has amplified sector-wide optimism. Howmet’s role in advanced aerospace components positions it to benefit from increased military spending, particularly as the U.S. accelerates drone and hypersonic tech programs. The stock’s 52-week high aligns with its 661% five-year surge, suggesting earnings could validate its premium valuation.

Defense Sector Rally Amplifies HWM’s Outperformance Against Boeing’s 2.03% Gain
While Boeing (BA) rose 2.03% today, Howmet’s 2.91% gain highlights its outperformance in a sector primed for growth. Trump’s proposed defense budget and NATO’s Arctic push are broad tailwinds, but Howmet’s niche in advanced aerospace manufacturing—recently bolstered by its $1.8B acquisition of CAM—creates a sharper earnings catalyst. Boeing’s slower pace reflects its broader exposure to commercial aviation, which faces softer demand. Howmet’s technicals, including a 60.3x P/E and 52-week high, suggest it’s capturing speculative momentum as investors position for Q4 surprises.

Options and Technicals Signal High-Volatility Playbook for HWM Bulls
• MACD: 4.99 (above signal line 3.94), RSI: 65.11 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: Price at $226.67 (near upper band $225.37)
• 200D MA: $180.06 (far below), 30D MA: $204.55 (support), 100D MA: $196.31

Howmet’s technicals paint a high-conviction bullish case. The stock is trading above all major moving averages, with RSI in overbought territory and MACD in a strong positive divergence. The 52-week high at $226.83 acts as a critical psychological level; a break above this could trigger a retest of the $230–235 range. For options players, the HWM20260123C215 and HWM20260123C225 contracts stand out:

• HWM20260123C215 (Call, $215 strike, Jan 23 expiry):
- IV: 36.81% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 24.63%, Delta: 0.83, Theta: -0.9496, Gamma: 0.0193, Turnover: 920
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $237.95): $22.95/share. This call offers high leverage with a delta near 0.8, ideal for a short-term rally.
• HWM20260123C225 (Call, $225 strike, Jan 23 expiry):
- IV: 17.39% (low), Leverage Ratio: 64.94%, Delta: 0.62, Theta: -0.7339, Gamma: 0.0614, Turnover: 2,218
- Payoff at 5% upside (ST = $237.95): $12.95/share. The high gamma and moderate delta make this ideal for a breakout scenario.

Aggressive bulls should consider HWM20260123C225 into a break above $226.83. If the 52-week high holds, the $230–235 range becomes a key target.

Backtest Howmet Aerospace Stock Performance
The backtest of HWM's performance following a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 55.72%, the 10-Day win rate at 60.07%, and the 30-Day win rate at 69.87%. The maximum return observed was 11.36% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, HWM can exhibit strong performance in the immediate aftermath of such an event.

Howmet at Inflection Point: Earnings and Sector Dynamics to Define Next Move
Howmet’s 2.91% surge to a 52-week high signals a pivotal moment. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a high-probability continuation of the bullish trend, particularly if Q4 results exceed expectations. Investors should monitor the $226.83 level as a critical breakout threshold; a close above this could trigger a retest of $230. Meanwhile, the defense sector’s momentum—driven by Trump’s $1.5T budget and NATO’s Arctic push—provides a macro tailwind. For context, Boeing’s 2.03% gain today underscores the sector’s strength but highlights Howmet’s unique catalyst. Act now: Buy HWM20260123C225 if $226.83 breaks, or short-term traders can scalp the $225–230 range with tight stops.