Howmet Aerospace Surges 2.19% to 52-Week High: Earnings Anticipation Fuels Rally

Summary
• Howmet Aerospace (HWM) hits $225.075, a 2.19% surge to its 52-week high of $226.83
• Earnings announcement scheduled for February 12, 2026, sparks pre-event volatility
• Options turnover jumps to 1.11 million shares, signaling heightened positioning

Howmet Aerospace’s stock has surged to a 52-week high amid growing anticipation for its Q4 2025 earnings release on February 12. The rally, driven by strategic positioning ahead of the earnings call and a bullish technical setup, has pushed the stock 2.19% higher intraday. With the aerospace sector showing mixed momentum and Boeing (BA) rising 2.01%, investors are closely watching HWM’s ability to sustain its breakout above key moving averages.

Earnings Anticipation and Technical Breakout Fuel Rally
Howmet Aerospace’s intraday surge to $225.075 is primarily driven by anticipation for its Q4 2025 earnings release on February 12. The company’s scheduled webcast and conference call have triggered increased positioning, as evidenced by the 1.11 million share turnover and elevated options activity. Technically, the stock has broken above its 200-day moving average of $180.06 and is testing the 52-week high of $226.83, creating a self-fulfilling momentum loop as traders chase the breakout. The absence of immediate bearish catalysts and a strong earnings history (3.57 trailing EPS) further support the rally.

Aerospace Sector Mixed as Boeing Trails HWM’s Gains
The broader aerospace sector remains fragmented, with Boeing (BA) rising 2.01% but trailing HWM’s 2.19% surge. While HWM’s rally is earnings-driven, Boeing’s gains reflect broader sector optimism around defense spending. However, HWM’s breakout above key technical levels and its 59.85 P/E ratio (vs. Boeing’s 18.1 P/E) suggest its move is more speculative, tied to short-term earnings expectations rather than macroeconomic tailwinds.

Options and ETF Playbook for HWM’s Earnings-Driven Volatility
• 200-day MA: $180.06 (below current price)
• RSI: 65.11 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 4.99 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $193.61–$225.37 (current price near upper band)

HWM’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with the 52-week high of $226.83 as the immediate target. The stock is trading above all major moving averages and within the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong short-term conviction. For leveraged exposure, consider XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) or EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) if sector rotation into energy or emerging markets accelerates.

Top Options Picks:
• HWM20260123C225 (Call, $225 strike, 1/23 expiration):
- IV: 28.34% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5096 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.705957 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.039863 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 9,877 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 56.20% (high potential return)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($236.33): $11.33/share
- This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $225. Its high gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings, while the moderate IV suggests reasonable cost.

• HWM20260123C230 (Call, $230 strike, 1/23 expiration):
- IV: 27.34% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.3126 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.489467 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.036683 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 2,564 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 118.32% (high potential return)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($236.33): $6.33/share
- This contract provides higher leverage for a more aggressive bet, with a lower delta reducing near-term risk. Its high gamma and moderate IV make it suitable for a continuation of the current bullish trend.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should consider HWM20260123C225 into a break above $225.075, while conservative traders may use HWM20260123C230 for a leveraged play on a sustained rally.

Backtest Howmet Aerospace Stock Performance
The backtest of HWM's performance following a 2% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.54%, the 10-Day win rate is 59.82%, and the 30-Day win rate is 69.64%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 11.28% over 30 days, suggesting that HWM can deliver decent gains even after the initial 2% surge.

HWM’s Earnings-Driven Rally: Key Levels and Immediate Outlook
Howmet Aerospace’s 2.19% surge to a 52-week high reflects strong earnings anticipation and a bullish technical setup. The stock’s ability to hold above $222.46 (intraday low) and its proximity to the 52-week high of $226.83 will determine the sustainability of the move. Investors should monitor the February 12 earnings release for guidance on 2026 growth and watch for a breakdown below the 200-day MA of $180.06 as a bearish signal. In the sector, Boeing’s 2.01% gain highlights aerospace resilience, but HWM’s breakout suggests it could outperform if earnings exceed expectations. Aggressive bulls: Buy HWM20260123C225 into a break above $225.075.