Howmet Aerospace Surges 2.45%—Defense Momentum Ignites Bull Run Toward 187.51

• HWM rockets to $184.08, hitting a near-52W high of $184.66 after soaring 2.45% today.
• Defense aerospace sales jump 19% Y/Y, driven by F-35 engine spares and military contracts.
• Institutional buying surges: Dakota Wealth Management adds 105,647 shares in Q1.

The stock’s blistering 127.7% YTD outperformance of the aerospace sector (20.1%) is fueled by defense tailwinds, while technicals hint at a potential breakout toward its 52W peak.

Defense Contracts & Funding Surge Ignite HWM’s Rally
Howmet’s surge stems directly from robust defense aerospace revenue growth, which surged 19% Y/Y in Q1 2025, accounting for 17% of total sales. The F-35 engine spares boom and legacy fighter jet part orders have supercharged its Engineered Structures segment, while the U.S. Senate’s $852.2B defense budget—up 3.3%—bolsters long-term demand visibility. Institutional inflows, including Dakota Wealth’s $13.7M Q1 stake, amplify momentum as military funding and contracts validate the defense narrative.

Aerospace Sector Mixed Amid Defense Tailwinds
While peer Textron (TXT) gains traction via Navy contracts and FLRAA progress, and GE Aerospace (GE) advances propulsion programs, sector volatility persists. Boeing’s Starliner delays and Spirit AeroSystems’ layoffs highlight execution risks. Yet Howmet’s 127.7% YTD outperformance versus the sector’s 20.1% growth underscores its defense-driven differentiation. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) mirrors HWM’s resilience with a 1.19% intraday gain, signaling sustained military spending tailwinds.

Technical Bull Run Targets—Top Call Options for the Breakout
• 200-day MA: $130.98 (well below current price, confirming bullish bias).
• RSI: 58.65 (neutral, no overbought signals).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $185.98, mid at $176.94—price hovers near resistance, signaling a potential pullback.

Trading Setup: Bulls target $187.51 (52W high), with $180 acting as key support. Aggressive plays consider leveraged ETFs (if available) for amplified exposure.
Top Options Picks:

1. HWM20250718C182.5 (Call): Strike $182.50, Exp 2025-07-18. Leverage Ratio: 47.24%, Delta: 0.6069, Theta: -1.1916, Gamma: 0.0527. With 147k turnover and mid-range IV (33.84%), this call offers balanced risk/reward. A 5% price rise to $193.33 yields $10.83 payoff, leveraging gamma’s sensitivity for rapid gains.

2. HWM20250718C185 (Call): Strike $185, Exp 2025-07-18. Leverage Ratio: 73.69%, Delta: 0.4697, Theta: -0.9908, Gamma: 0.0563. Higher leverage (73.69%) and strong turnover (198k) make this ideal for bullish bets on $187.51. A 5% move to $193.33 nets $8.33 payoff, with gamma amplifying gains near strike.

Hook: For a $187.51 breakout, buy HWM20250718C185—its gamma and mid-IV balance volatility risk with upside potential.

Backtest Howmet Aerospace Stock Performance
The backtest of HWM's performance after a 2% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is high at 51.32%, the returns over the 3, 10, and 30 days are relatively modest, with a maximum return of only 0.38% over 30 days. This suggests that while HWM tends to bounce back quickly from intraday dips, the overall impact of the surge on long-term performance is muted.

Sustain the Momentum—Watch $187.51 and Defense Catalysts
Howmet’s ascent is justified by defense contracts and budget tailwinds, but technicals warn against overextension near $187.51. Bulls must conquer this resistance to validate a new high—failure could trigger a retracement toward $180. Monitor LMT’s performance (up 1.19%) as a sector barometer. Aggressive traders should deploy HWM20250718C185 calls into the $187.51 test, while caution reigns until breakout confirmation. Action Alert: Fade weakness below $180 or go all-in if $187.51 holds—defense spending won’t slow anytime soon.