Three-Hour Flight Delays Surge 400% Since 1987 Amid Schedule Padding and Aging Infrastructure

A Harvard Business School economics PhD candidate, Maxwell Tabarrok, has uncovered a troubling trend in air travel: flights delayed by three hours or more have become four times more common since 1987 [1]. His analysis of 30 years of Bureau of Transportation Statistics data revealed a sharp increase in extended delays, a trend that airlines may be attempting to mask through schedule padding [1]. By inflating flight durations by an average of 20 minutes, carriers can maintain higher on-time performance metrics, even as real-world travel times increase [1].

Tabarrok points to a key shift in airline scheduling practices beginning around 2000, when actual flight times and scheduled times began to diverge [1]. This suggests a strategic move by airlines to manipulate on-time statistics rather than address systemic issues. The financial implications are significant, with the researcher estimating that the added delay time costs passengers roughly $6 billion in lost time annually, based on U.S. wage data [1].

The researcher attributes the growing frequency of delays to a combination of factors, including increased air traffic, outdated infrastructure, and a shortage of air traffic controllers [1]. U.S. Department of Transportation data shows that weather is the leading cause of non-airline delays, but Tabarrok argues that the root of the problem lies in misaligned incentives. He notes that the FAA has no direct financial stake in reducing delays and no institutional reward for improving airport performance, creating little motivation for structural reform [1].

Tabarrok also highlights the challenges of expanding airport capacity. The U.S. has not opened a major commercial airport since 1995, and runway construction at existing hubs has been minimal, despite a 50% increase in passenger traffic since 2000 [1]. Larger aircraft, while efficient in moving more passengers, have also contributed to bottlenecks, with longer boarding and turnaround times compounding the effects of delays.

For Tabarrok, staffing is a realistic solution. However, increasing the number of air traffic controllers would require a fundamental shift in how the FAA approaches recruitment, licensing, and training, a process that is often hindered by bureaucratic inertia [1]. Environmental and legal challenges also complicate large-scale infrastructure projects, which can take years to approve and build [1].

Without meaningful policy changes, Tabarrok warns of a future where weather events or minor disruptions trigger widespread chaos at airports, wasting millions of hours of travelers' time each year [1]. He cautions that the economic cost of delays will continue to rise in tandem with growing air travel demand. The researcher concludes that without addressing the structural and institutional constraints of the current system, the U.S. will remain locked in a cycle of inefficiency and increasing delays.

Source: [1] Harvard researcher unearths data airlines don’t want you to notice: Three-hour flight delays are 4x more common now than 30 years ago (https://fortune.com/2025/08/14/harvard-researcher-airline-delays-data-faa-shortages/)