HOTUSDT Market Overview – 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price action showed a bearish bias with a 0.67% decline over 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded during early hours, with a high of $0.000677 and low of $0.000630.
• Volume spiked to $50.27 million at midday but waned in the latter half.
• RSI briefly entered overbought territory, but momentum has since weakened.
• Price found temporary support around $0.000650–0.000655 late in the session.

Holo/Tether (HOTUSDT) opened at $0.000655 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.000642 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The pair hit a high of $0.000677 and a low of $0.000630 over the past 24 hours, showing a relatively bearish trend. Total traded volume amounted to $1.02 billion, with notional turnover reaching $669.8 million. The price appears to have tested key support levels near $0.000650 but failed to hold above $0.000660 amid waning bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified around $0.000650 and $0.000640, where the price found a temporary floor after several bearish intraday moves. Resistance levels at $0.000665–0.000670 were tested multiple times but failed to hold, especially during midday hours. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.000664–0.000663 in the early morning and a morning star-like reversal at $0.000660–0.000663. These formations suggest continued risk of further downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover (death cross) around 20:00 ET, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages were closely aligned around $0.000655, indicating a potential equilibrium zone. Price has remained below the 200-period MA for most of the session, raising questions about the strength of the short-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line late morning and remained negative for the rest of the session, signaling bearish momentum. The histogram expanded during the midday and early evening, confirming the strength of the downtrend. RSI peaked near overbought territory at 63 early in the session but declined to 36 by the close, indicating exhaustion of recent buying pressure. The pair may find temporary oversold conditions around 30–35 if the trend continues.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 19:00 and 20:00 ET, with the price breaking above the upper band at $0.000677. This was followed by a sharp correction into the lower band, ending near $0.000642. The Bollinger Band contraction in the early morning suggested reduced volatility and a buildup for a breakout, which eventually materialized but led to a sell-off rather than a rally.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked at $50.27 million at 14:00 ET, corresponding to a large volume of 50.26 million HOT. This coincided with a price rejection at $0.000645–0.000646 and a subsequent decline. Later, at 22:00 ET, a volume spike of 63.98 million HOT with $42.4 million turnover confirmed the bearish continuation. Notably, price and volume diverged slightly in the late evening when turnover dropped despite price remaining in a downtrend, hinting at weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key 15-minute swing from $0.000630 to $0.000677, the 61.8% level sits at $0.000656, which the price tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, a major 38.2% retracement level at $0.000650 acted as a support during the late afternoon but was broken on Monday. A potential next target for a continuation of the downtrend could be the 61.8% level at $0.000640, where further consolidation or rejection is expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the combination of a Bearish Engulfing candle and an RSI overbought signal (RSI > 60) could be a viable short-term bearish signal for HOTUSDT. Given the recent Bearish Engulfing pattern at $0.000664–0.000663 and an RSI peak near 63, the conditions align with a potential short entry point. If executed on a 1-day basis—shorting at the next day’s open and closing at the following day’s close—this approach could be backtested using the historical data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11.

For the backtest, the following assumptions apply:
- Stocks to test: The strategy is applied to a single symbol—HOTUSDT.
- Trade direction & mechanics: A short position is opened at the next day’s open and closed at the following day’s close, assuming no leverage or transaction costs.
- Price series: Entry is at the next day’s open; exit is at the following day’s close.
- Risk-control rules: No additional stop-loss, take-profit, or holding-day constraints beyond the fixed 1-day holding period.

To execute the backtest, we would need to identify all instances of the Bearish Engulfing pattern and RSI > 60 in the historical data and evaluate the returns of the 1-day short positions. This could provide insights into the strategy's viability under similar market conditions in the past.