D.R. Horton Jumps 16.98% As Bullish Signals Converge At 153.5

Candlestick Theory
D.R. Horton's recent 16.98% surge on July 22, 2025, formed a robust bullish marubozu candle, closing near its high of $153.5 after gapping up from $131.22. This pattern signals strong buying pressure and invalidates the preceding downtrend that tested support near $129–$130 (established through multiple touches in June–July 2025). Resistance now converges at $155–$158, aligning with the March 2025 swing high. The engulfing pattern over the prior three sessions confirms momentum, though the extended wick to $141 suggests initial profit-taking.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($134) crossed bullishly above the 100-day MA ($132) and 200-day MA ($128), forming a "golden cross" in early July 2025. This signals a long-term bullish reversal. Price is now trading 14% above the 200-day MA, indicating strong upward momentum. The steep ascent of the 50-day MA reinforces short-term strength, though a deviation this pronounced may precede consolidation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish crossover with histogram bars expanding, confirming acceleration in upward momentum. KDJ (14,3,3) exhibits a synchronized rise: %K (92) and %D (85) are deeply overbought (>80), historically preceding 1–3 session pullbacks. No bearish divergence exists, but the extreme KDJ reading suggests near-term exhaustion risks.
Bollinger Bands
The July surge propelled price above the upper Bollinger Band ($145), stretching volatility to a 5-month high. The bands had contracted sharply in early July (width narrowing 30%), foreshadowing this explosive move. While closing above the upper band implies strength, a reversion toward the 20-day SMA ($138) is statistically likely within 2–4 sessions.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout volume (13.1 million shares) was 190% above the 30-day average, validating institutional participation. This dwarfs the distribution volume during the April–May 2025 decline, confirming a supply-demand shift. Sustained support requires volume holding above 6 million shares on pullbacks.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (78) entered overbought territory, aligning with the KDJ warning. RSI hasn’t exceeded 80 since September 2024—a level that preceded 8–12% corrections. However, strong trend phases can maintain elevated RSI; thus, this serves as a caution, not a reversal signal, especially with confirmed bullish volume.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the June 18 low ($119.64) and April 9 high ($194.39), key retracement levels cluster at $157 (50%) and $162 (61.8%). The July rally surpassed the 23.6% level ($137), turning it into support. Confluence exists at $157–$162, where the 50% Fibonacci level overlaps with the 2024 highs, creating a high-probability resistance zone.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Confluence supports bullish momentum: The volume-backed breakout coincides with moving average alignment, MACD acceleration, and Fibonacci clearance. No material divergences appear, though Bollinger/RSI/KDJ extremes collectively warn of short-term overheating. A pullback toward $143–$138 would offer optimal entry points, provided volume declines during consolidation and key support holds. The primary technical structure now favors continued upside toward $157–$162, barring a close below $135.