Hooked Protocol/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-11)

• Price declined sharply from $0.096 to $0.0604, closing with a 37% drawdown from peak
• Volatility expanded dramatically after 21:00 ET with a 24-hour high of $0.096 and a low of $0.0097
• Volume spiked above 12M at 21:15 ET, signaling potential exhaustion as price collapsed
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum with no sign of near-term oversold conditions
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply during the selloff, indicating a breakdown in consolidation

Market Opening & Price Action

At 12:00 ET–1, HOOKUSDT opened at $0.0949 and traded to a high of $0.0965 before collapsing to a 24-hour low of $0.0097. The price closed at $0.0604 on 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 74.1M, with a turnover of $6.89M, reflecting intense selling pressure after 21:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price initially traded in a narrow $0.0940–$0.0960 range but broke down decisively after a long bearish candle at 21:15 ET. A sharp 52% decline in two 15-minute intervals suggests capitulation, with no bullish reversal patterns forming during the selloff. A key support level appears at $0.0600–$0.0620, with resistance lingering near $0.0640–$0.0650.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart have been decisively violated, with price trailing well below all moving averages. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period lines are likely in a strong downward bias, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned sharply negative and remains in bear territory, with a large bearish histogram confirming the recent collapse. RSI has fallen into oversold territory below 30, but with no sign of divergence or reversal, indicating potential for further downside without a rebound in buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the selloff accelerated, particularly after 21:00 ET. Price closed near the lower band at $0.0604, suggesting a possible short-term bounce but no reversal in trend. A contraction in the bands may indicate a period of consolidation before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 21:15 ET, with a 12.7M turnover in a single candle, followed by a sharp drop-off in activity after the breakdown. This suggests a potential exhaustion of sellers, but without a clear buying response, the bearish bias remains intact.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the key swing high at $0.0965 to the recent low at $0.0097, the 61.8% retracement level is near $0.0625, a zone where price has previously tested. A potential bounce or rejection here could provide a short-term floor for near-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for HOOKUSDT could involve a short-biased system triggered by a break of the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a volume spike and a bearish MACD crossover. A stop could be placed above the 20-period SMA or at the previous swing high. This strategy would aim to capture momentum breakdowns like the one observed today, particularly in volatile altcoins with high volume divergence during sharp selloffs. The current price action aligns with the conditions described, suggesting a high probability of continuation if the $0.0600 level breaks decisively.