Robinhood Soars 2.45% Amid Prediction Market Surge and Crypto Expansion

Summary
• Robinhood (HOOD) surges 2.45% to $118.0951, hitting an intraday high of $119.62
• Prediction markets and crypto trading drive 2.5B event contracts in Q4 2025
• Options chain shows aggressive put buying at $110–$112 strikes ahead of 1/16 expiration
Robinhood’s stock is surging on a breakout in prediction markets and crypto volumes, with the stock trading near its 52-week high. The move follows a 186% rally in 2025 and a strategic pivot into event contracts, which generated $300M in Q3. With the stock above its 200-day moving average and options volatility spiking, the focus shifts to whether this momentum can sustain.

Prediction Markets and Crypto Fuel HOOD’s Rally
Robinhood’s 2.45% intraday gain is driven by its prediction markets segment, which processed 2.5 billion event contracts in October 2025 alone. The company’s acquisition of Bitstamp and expansion into crypto trading have diversified revenue streams, with crypto contributing 20% of Q3 2025 revenue. Analysts highlight the stock’s outperformance against a declining Coinbase, as Robinhood’s prediction markets mature into a $300M revenue driver. This momentum is amplified by a 47.9 P/E ratio, pricing in aggressive growth expectations.

Capital Markets Sector Mixed as Goldman Sachs Slides
The Capital Markets sector is mixed, with Goldman Sachs (GS) down 0.097% despite Robinhood’s rally. While Robinhood’s prediction markets and crypto bets differentiate it, broader sector pressures from regulatory scrutiny and a cooling crypto market remain. GS’s decline reflects caution in traditional brokerage models, underscoring Robinhood’s pivot toward high-growth, speculative assets as a key differentiator.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on HOOD’s Volatility
• 200-day average: 99.26 (below current price)
• RSI: 47.14 (neutral)
• MACD: -2.33 (bearish), Signal: -2.32 (bearish), Histogram: -0.01 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: 112.18–124.50 (current price at 118.34)
Robinhood’s technicals show a short-term bearish trend but long-term range-bound setup. Key support at $113.07 and resistance at $115.86. The Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF (HODU) and Roundhill HOOD WeeklyPay ETF (HOOW) offer leveraged exposure, with HODU up 5.81% and HOOW up 3.02% today. For options, two contracts stand out:
• HOOD20260116P110 (Put): Strike $110, Expiry 1/16, IV 57.01%, Leverage 231.75%, Delta -0.1318, Theta -0.0337, Gamma 0.0271, Turnover 186,789
• HOOD20260116P111 (Put): Strike $111, Expiry 1/16, IV 56.11%, Leverage 176.40%, Delta -0.1593, Theta -0.0253, Gamma 0.0313, Turnover 67,321
HOOD20260116P110 offers high leverage (231.75%) and moderate delta (-0.1318), ideal for a 5% upside scenario where payoff = max(0, $124.00 - $110) = $14.00. HOOD20260116P111, with 176.40% leverage and delta -0.1593, benefits from a 5% move to $124.00, yielding $13.00. Both contracts have high turnover and IV in the mid-range, balancing risk and reward. Aggressive bulls may consider HOOD20260116C114 (Call) if the stock breaks above $119.62.

Backtest Robinhood Markets Stock Performance
The backtest of HOOD's performance after an intraday surge of at least 2% from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 56.09%, the 10-day win rate is 60.74%, and the 30-day win rate is 62.67%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 20.68% over 30 days, suggesting that HOOD can deliver significant gains even after the initial 2% surge.

Robinhood’s Momentum Faces Crucial Test at $113 Support
Robinhood’s rally hinges on sustaining its breakout above $115.86 resistance and avoiding a breakdown below $113.07 support. The stock’s 47.9 P/E ratio and 2.5B event contracts in Q4 2025 signal high-growth potential, but a crypto winter or regulatory pushback could derail momentum. Watch for Goldman Sachs (GS)’s -0.097% move as a sector barometer. For now, HOOD20260116P110 and HODU offer the most compelling short-term plays. If $113.07 holds, the stock could retest its 52-week high of $153.86.